Nigeria’s path to prosperity must move beyond raw material exports to the production of complex, high-value goods, Zacch Adedeji, chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), said during a lecture at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State.
Adedeji argued that Nigeria must embrace innovation and industrialisation as the foundation for sustainable economic growth and national prosperity. The call came during the maiden distinguished personality lecture of the Faculty of Administration at OAU, where he addressed students, academics, and policymakers.
From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy
Delivering a lecture titled “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy,” Adedeji urged Nigeria to rethink its growth model by building economic complexity rather than producing more of the same commodities.
He noted that complex product production involves manufacturing highly engineered items that require numerous components, long lifecycles, and intricate assembly processes. Such products, he said, generate high value and drive long-term industrial development.
A High-Tech Sector, Low Productivity Economy
According to a statement by Dare Adekanmbi, Adedeji’s special adviser on media, the NRS chairman lamented that Nigeria has a high-tech oil sector but a low-productivity informal economy, without “a vibrant, labour-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity.”
He said this mismatch has prevented Nigeria from leveraging its resources to build sustainable industries.
Three Decades of Export Stagnation
Adedeji highlighted a worrying trend: Nigeria’s export drive stagnated for three decades between 1998 and 2023. He added that the country introduced only six new products into its export basket between 2008 and 2023.
He noted that because of Nigeria’s current position, the Harvard Atlas concluded that the country is positioned to take advantage of very few opportunities to diversify using what it already knows.
Nigeria Still a Raw Material Supplier
Adedeji said Nigeria remains a supplier of raw materials rather than an active participant in global value chains (GVCs). He emphasised that productive capabilities are not permanent and can be lost if the country fails to build and sustain them.
He said countries like South Africa and Brazil demonstrate that an industrial edge can be lost if not protected and nurtured. Over-reliance on resource extraction creates economic and political incentives that crowd out long-term industrial development.
Zacch Adedeji, the NRS chairman, (centre) spoke delivered the maiden distinguished personality lecture of the faculty of administration at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun on February 5, 2026
Learning from Other Nations
Adedeji urged Nigeria to learn from the experiences of countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil. While many nations underperform in different ways, he said the path to success is often defined by a clear strategy to build economic complexity.
He said Vietnam stands out because it used global trade to build a resilient, complex economy, while other countries remained dependent on natural resources or a single low-tech niche.
He highlighted three major lessons for Nigeria:
-
Avoiding the resource curse is necessary but not enough.
Nigeria must adopt a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities. -
Integration into global value chains is essential.
Vietnam positioned itself as an assembly hub for electronics by importing high-tech parts and exporting finished products. This allowed the country to “borrow” technology and management skills from abroad to build its own know-how. -
Productive capabilities are not permanent.
Nigeria must actively build and protect its industrial base, or risk losing its edge.
A Stark Warning for Nigeria
Adedeji said that for Nigeria, which is at an earlier stage of development and even less diversified than these nations, the warning is stark.
He said the global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity. Nigeria must reposition itself as a source of ideas and high-value products rather than raw materials.
Tinubu’s Economic Rebuilding Efforts
The NRS chairman added that President Bola Tinubu has begun the difficult task of rebuilding the economy. He said this effort is crucial to ensure that Nigeria collectively develops the knowledge to innovate, produce, and build a resilient economy.