The future of digital security may be on the brink of a major transformation as quantum computing technology advances at an accelerating pace. Google has sounded the alarm, warning that these next-generation machines could compromise the encryption that currently safeguards sensitive information, potentially as early as 2029.
Banks, governments, and tech companies are being urged to take proactive steps to defend against this emerging threat. In a recent blog post, Google outlined how the unprecedented computational power of quantum systems could make today’s widely used cryptographic protections obsolete, emphasizing the need for urgent preparation across industries.
The company, part of the Alphabet conglomerate, stated: “The encryption currently used to keep your information confidential and secure could easily be broken by a large-scale quantum computer in coming years.” It also encouraged other organizations to follow its lead in updating cryptographic practices.
Quantum computers, which exploit the principles of quantum mechanics to perform complex calculations at unprecedented speeds, remain an emerging technology. While they hold immense potential for fields such as medicine, logistics, and climate modeling, significant technical obstacles still limit their practical application.
Researchers at Google, Microsoft, and universities in the UK and US are actively developing systems that leverage quantum phenomena to tackle mathematical problems far beyond the reach of classical computers. However, building a fully operational, large-scale quantum computer is a formidable challenge. Current systems require extreme conditions—such as cooling to near absolute zero with vast amounts of helium or painstaking laser alignment over several weeks—and even the most advanced prototypes are still too small to threaten conventional encryption.
A truly powerful quantum computer would need hundreds of thousands or even millions of stable qubits (quantum bits), a feat complicated by the fragile nature of quantum states. Google emphasized that it has already adjusted its security priorities to account for this future threat: “We’ve adjusted our threat model to prioritise post-quantum cryptography migration for authentication services—an important component of online security and digital signature migrations. We recommend that other engineering teams follow suit.”
Experts caution that Google’s warning does not guarantee that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will exist by 2029. Leonie Mueck, formerly chief product officer of Cambridge-based quantum startup Riverlane, noted that most projections place such breakthroughs between the 2030s and 2050s. Nevertheless, the prospect is close enough that governments and organizations are beginning proactive preparations.
“The intelligence community has been aware of this threat for probably more than a decade,” Mueck said. “Data secured under today’s encryption standards could be vulnerable once the technology matures.”
Last year, the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre advised organizations to strengthen systems against quantum-enabled attacks by 2035. Google’s more immediate timeline serves as a wake-up call for technology teams to consider adopting post-quantum cryptography sooner rather than later. Certain cyberattacks, which exploit the future potential of quantum decryption in a “store now, decrypt later” approach, may already be underway.
Mueck explained the stakes: “National security documents from 1920 are not relevant today. But materials from 10 years ago are much more relevant and should not fall into the wrong hands in the future. Organizations need to classify sensitive data today in ways that a quantum computer in 10 years cannot decrypt.”
As the race toward functional quantum computing accelerates, the window to safeguard critical data may be narrower than previously assumed, pushing encryption upgrades to the forefront of cybersecurity planning.