Nigeria’s inflation picture remains uneven, with six states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) recording all-items inflation above 20 per cent in February 2026, even as the national headline rate showed a marginal decline. The data reflect persistent price pressures at the subnational level, particularly driven by food costs and local economic conditions.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, headline inflation slowed slightly to 15.06 per cent in February, down from 15.10 per cent in January. While this signals a modest easing at the national level, state-level figures reveal that the reduction has yet to translate into broad-based relief.
States with Highest Inflation
Disaggregated figures show Kogi leading with the highest all-items inflation at 23.6 per cent, followed by Benue at 22.9 per cent and Anambra at 22.1 per cent. The FCT posted 21.9 per cent, Oyo 21.6 per cent, Akwa Ibom 20.9 per cent, and Adamawa stood at 20.0 per cent, just at the threshold.
The persistence of elevated prices in these states underscores the influence of regional cost structures and supply conditions, which continue to sustain high inflation despite a marginal national slowdown.
Food Inflation as the Main Driver
Food prices remain a central factor behind the divergence in inflation rates. Kogi recorded food inflation of 26.9 per cent, Adamawa 23.1 per cent, and Benue 21.9 per cent, all significantly above the national food inflation rate of 12.12 per cent.
Even states with lower food inflation, such as Anambra at 13.8 per cent and Oyo at 14.9 per cent, still experienced overall inflation above 20 per cent, reflecting the impact of non-food components, including transport, housing, and energy costs.
Monthly Reversals in Price Trends
February data revealed a sharp reversal in monthly price trends. After experiencing declines in January, all affected states recorded positive month-on-month inflation, indicating renewed upward momentum in prices.
Anambra led with the fastest monthly rise in all-items inflation at 4.1 per cent, followed by Oyo at 4.0 per cent and Akwa Ibom at 3.8 per cent. Abuja and Kogi recorded increases of 2.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent, while Benue and Adamawa posted more modest rises of 0.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively.
The monthly surge was even more pronounced in food prices. Anambra saw a 6.6 per cent increase, Akwa Ibom 6.5 per cent, and Kogi 5.9 per cent. This suggests that local food supply conditions may have tightened again after temporary relief in January.
January Declines Were Temporary
January 2026 had seen widespread declines in both food and all-items inflation. Kogi recorded a 6.0 per cent drop in all-items prices and 6.8 per cent in food prices, while Abuja posted declines of 4.5 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively. Similar downward movements were observed in Anambra, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, and Adamawa, highlighting that the earlier reductions were short-lived.
The sharp reversal between January and February points to the re-emergence of underlying structural pressures that continue to push prices upward.
National Inflation Trends
On the national front, the CPI rose to 130.0 in February from 127.4 in January, reflecting a 2.6-point increase over the month. Despite the monthly increase, headline inflation declined sharply on a year-on-year basis, falling by 11.21 percentage points from February 2025’s 26.27 per cent.
However, the NBS noted that the rate of price increase in February was higher than in January, with month-on-month inflation standing at 2.01 per cent compared with a decline of 2.88 per cent the previous month.
Business and Household Impact
Members of the Organised Private Sector (OPS) warned that the marginal easing in headline inflation offers little relief for businesses and households, particularly given persistent rises in food and energy costs.
Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, said the slight drop in inflation largely reflected seasonal demand patterns rather than structural improvements. “The marginal reduction in inflation is influenced by post-holiday demand softening. It hasn’t translated into real relief for small and medium-sized enterprises or households,” he explained.
Egbesola stressed that the slight moderation should not be seen as a cause for celebration, noting that operational costs and the cost of living remain high.
Conclusion
While Nigeria’s headline inflation shows early signs of moderation, state-level data reveal persistent pressure, particularly from food and non-food items. The divergence between national averages and local realities indicates that many Nigerians continue to face significant price increases in everyday goods and services, with temporary relief in January quickly reversed by February’s data.