Data from Nigeria’s National Data Repository show a sustained reduction in new HIV infections following a peak in 2020. Analysis covering 2016 to early 2026 reveals a period of fluctuation, with cases rising from 228,017 in 2016 to a peak of 464,382 in 2020.
While infections remained high in 2021 at 451,407, the trend shifted decisively downward from 2022. New cases fell to 330,681 in 2022 and 238,752 in 2023, before accelerating to 143,665 in 2024 and 111,476 in 2025. Preliminary figures for the first quarter of 2026 indicate 20,838 new cases, suggesting the decline may continue if current interventions are sustained.
The early drop comes amid ongoing public health initiatives, including the March 2026 rollout of Lenacapavir across eight states and the Federal Capital Territory. The injectable offers a new option for HIV prevention, complementing existing strategies and targeting populations at high risk.
Additionally, the government recently unveiled the National HIV Prevention Plan 2026–2030, which aims to shift from reactive treatment approaches to proactive, development-focused interventions.
The data highlight a turning point for Nigeria’s HIV response, following a period of volatility between 2016 and 2021, when spikes in new infections were recorded alongside reductions in condom distribution due to declining international support, as noted in a November 2025 UNAIDS report.
If current momentum is maintained through expanded access to innovative prevention tools, strengthened public health campaigns, and community engagement, experts suggest Nigeria could continue to see reductions in HIV transmission nationwide.