Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy faced a sharp drop in crude oil export earnings in 2025, even as the country posted a modest current account surplus, highlighting the complex dynamics of its external trade and hydrocarbon sector.
According to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Balance of Payments report, earnings from crude oil exports fell from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025—a decline of $5.31 billion, or 14.41 per cent year-on-year. The contraction in crude oil receipts emerged as a major factor behind the moderation of Nigeria’s current account surplus, which stood at $14.04 billion in 2025. While still positive, this figure was down from $19.03 billion in 2024 but remained significantly higher than the $6.42 billion surplus recorded in 2023.
The report noted, “Provisional BOP statistics for 2025 show a current account surplus of $14.04 billion, which was lower than the $19.03 billion in the previous year,” attributing the decline partly to reduced crude oil exports.
Production Rises but Revenue Falls
Interestingly, the drop in earnings occurred despite an increase in crude oil output. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicated that total crude oil production rose to 530.41 million barrels in 2025, up from 408.68 million barrels in 2024. Production, however, remained uneven throughout the year, affected by operational disruptions, outages, and a gradual recovery in some oil fields.
Despite this higher output, Nigeria fell short of both its OPEC quota and its 2025 budget production target of 2.1 million barrels per day, which would have translated into 766.5 million barrels annually. In reality, the country produced only 599.64 million barrels of oil and condensate combined, leaving it 166.86 million barrels below its planned target.
While crude oil prices offered some cushion for revenue, the overall picture points to structural challenges in translating production gains into export earnings.
Shift in Export Composition
Although total oil and gas exports increased slightly from $45.51 billion in 2024 to $48.17 billion in 2025, the growth was largely driven by gas and refined petroleum product exports, not crude oil. Gas exports surged from $8.66 billion to $10.51 billion—a 21.36 per cent increase—while newly recorded refined petroleum exports rose to $6.13 billion, reflecting the impact of domestic refining projects such as the Dangote Refinery.
The report highlighted that these developments marked a gradual shift in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon export mix, with refined petroleum emerging as a more significant component. Nevertheless, crude oil remained the dominant export, and its decline exerted a pronounced impact on overall external earnings.
Rising Imports and Outflows
The country’s external sector also experienced pressures from growing import bills and increased outflows in other current account components. Non-oil imports climbed from $25.74 billion in 2024 to $29.24 billion in 2025, while net outflows in the services account widened from $13.36 billion to $14.58 billion. Payments in the primary income account jumped 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividends and interest remitted to foreign investors.
On the positive side, the goods account recorded a surplus of $14.51 billion in 2025, up from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported by rising gas exports and the emergence of refined petroleum exports. The availability of locally refined fuel also helped curb imports, with refined petroleum product imports declining from $14.06 billion to $10.00 billion. Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion were recorded, primarily to supply domestic refineries.
Overall, Nigeria’s balance of payments closed 2025 with a surplus of $4.23 billion, down from $6.83 billion in 2024, while external reserves rose to $45.75 billion, signaling improved reserve accumulation despite underlying pressures.
Calls for Greater Oversight
Amid these developments, state governments have urged a forensic audit of Nigeria’s crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements. Officials warned that opaque crude-for-loan and swap deals may be undermining inflows into the Federation Account.
In a communiqué, state finance commissioners highlighted concerns over the Petroleum Industry Act’s implementation, particularly regarding the transfer of joint venture assets to NNPC Limited, management fees, profit oil administration under production sharing contracts, and the Frontier Exploration Fund. The statement noted that these issues “materially reduced inflows into the Federation Account and weakened oversight,” emphasizing the need for greater transparency, accountability, and stronger mechanisms to manage public finances.