This projection comes from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) in its latest report, Bridging the Gap: Travel & Tourism Capital Investment and Demand Growth Across the G20, unveiled during ITB Berlin and produced in collaboration with Oxford Economics.
Demand Rising — But Investment Must Keep Pace
According to the report, Travel & Tourism demand across the G20 and Spain is forecast to expand at an average annual rate of 3.3% over the next decade. Capital investment, meanwhile, is projected to grow even faster at 4.6% annually between 2025 and 2035.
However, the research underscores a critical timing issue. While long-term investment growth is expected to surpass demand, short-term recovery in capital spending is lagging behind the rebound in travel demand. This temporary divergence could create capacity constraints, strain infrastructure, and contribute to localized overcrowding in popular destinations.
From around 2033 onward, the trend is expected to reverse, with investment levels exceeding demand growth, helping to stabilize infrastructure and enhance long-term resilience.
Closing the Strategic Gap
The WTTC report describes this imbalance as a “strategic gap” — one that must be carefully managed to avoid bottlenecks that could undermine service quality and destination competitiveness.
Sustained and targeted infrastructure investment — particularly in transport connectivity, accommodation capacity, and sustainable upgrades — will be central to unlocking the sector’s full economic potential. Without alignment between capital flows and demand trends, destinations risk falling behind in an increasingly competitive global tourism landscape.
Germany and Spain Lead the Way
Investment strategies vary significantly among major economies. Some countries are already positioning themselves as “strategic modernisers,” investing ahead of projected demand growth.
Germany plans to channel approximately $543 billion into Travel & Tourism infrastructure by 2035. With an investment-to-demand growth ratio of 1.39, the country is reinforcing its reputation as a high-quality, resilient destination focused on long-term competitiveness.
Spain is also taking an aggressive forward-looking approach, committing an estimated $349 billion over the same period. Its investment rate is projected to grow 1.46 times faster than demand, strengthening its position as one of the world’s leading tourism destinations.
A Decisive Decade Ahead
Gloria Guevara, President & CEO of WTTC, described the coming years as a defining period for infrastructure and competitiveness in the global Travel & Tourism sector.
She emphasized that countries aligning investment with future demand are not only strengthening economic resilience but also securing sustainable long-term growth. Enhanced connectivity, modern infrastructure, and sustainability-focused upgrades are expected to support job creation, exports, and broader economic development across the G20 economies.
WTTC is calling for deeper collaboration between governments and the private sector to ensure capital investment remains strategically targeted and delivers measurable economic returns.
The World Travel & Tourism Council serves as the global private-sector voice of the Travel & Tourism industry. Its membership includes leaders from airlines, hotels, cruise lines, tour operators, and technology firms.
For more than three decades, the organization has produced data-driven research quantifying Travel & Tourism’s contribution to GDP, employment, and exports worldwide, while advocating policies that promote sustainable growth and public-private cooperation.
As global travel demand continues to expand, the alignment between investment and long-term market trends may ultimately determine which economies emerge as leaders in the next era of tourism growth.