New shipment data from analytics firm Kpler shows that the refinery’s jet fuel exports climbed by about 770 per cent within two years—rising from roughly 18,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April 2024, when operations began, to a record 158,000 bpd by April 2026.
The rapid expansion reflects both increasing global demand for aviation fuel and shifting supply chains influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly across key trade corridors linking the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.
Europe Emerges as Key Market
Europe has become the largest destination for Dangote’s jet fuel exports, accounting for approximately 70,000 bpd as of April 2026. This marks a significant jump from 30,000 bpd recorded a year earlier, as European buyers increasingly diversify away from traditional Gulf suppliers.
Analysts attribute this shift in part to disruptions in major shipping routes, including the Red Sea, where heightened security risks have affected global logistics. As a result, West African supply routes—offering shorter transit times and reduced exposure to volatile waters—have become more attractive to fuel importers.
Regional Gains Across Africa
Exports within Africa have also recorded strong growth, increasing from 18,000 bpd in April 2024 to about 69,000 bpd by April 2026—a 283 per cent rise. Over the past year alone, shipments to neighbouring countries have more than doubled.
This trend highlights the refinery’s role in reducing the continent’s dependence on imported aviation fuel from Europe and Asia. By providing a regional supply source, the facility has helped ease price pressures and cushion African airlines from global freight volatility.
Mixed Trends in the Americas, Broader Market Expansion
Exports to the Americas have fluctuated, peaking at around 55,000 bpd in early 2025 before easing to about 14,000 bpd in April 2026, as the refinery prioritised higher-margin European markets. Despite the decline, volumes remain above early operational levels, indicating continued relevance.
Meanwhile, shipments to emerging markets in South America and parts of Asia—grouped under “Others”—have grown from negligible levels in 2024 to roughly 19,000 bpd, reflecting ongoing diversification.
Overall, exports nearly doubled between December 2025 and April 2026 alone, underscoring the refinery’s ability to scale rapidly in response to global demand shifts.
NNPC Records Parallel Growth
Alongside Dangote’s expansion, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reported its strongest crude trading performance in five years, reaching 1.71 million bpd over the past year.
According to its one-year mandate report, covering April 2025 to April 2026, the company achieved key operational milestones. Its upstream subsidiary recorded a production peak of 365,000 bpd in December 2025, while progress was also made in resolving the long-running OPL 245 dispute by converting it into a production-sharing framework.
Gas infrastructure development also advanced, notably with the completion of a critical segment of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline project across the River Niger in July 2025. Total gas supply reached 7.5 billion standard cubic feet per day during the review period.
NNPC further strengthened its collaboration with Dangote Refinery through initiatives such as the crude-for-naira arrangement and by consolidating a 7.25 per cent equity stake in the facility.
Sector Transformation Underway
Commenting on the performance, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, described the progress as part of a broader push for transparency, efficiency, and accountability within the sector.
The combined developments at Dangote Refinery and NNPC signal a wider transformation in Nigeria’s energy landscape. With expanding domestic refining capacity and improving upstream output, the country is increasingly positioning itself as a significant supplier in global petroleum and aviation fuel markets.