Airports across the UK and European Union have been alerted to the risk that fuel supplies may become critically constrained if shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz do not reopen in a stable and sustained manner. Industry warnings suggest that the continent could be only around three weeks away from systemic shortages if current conditions persist.
The Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has formally raised the alarm in correspondence sent to the EU’s energy and transport leadership, cautioning that the aviation sector is approaching a tipping point. According to the group, the combined pressures of disrupted supply chains and heightened military tensions in the Middle East are already tightening availability and pushing fuel markets into instability.
At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime chokepoint through which a significant share of global oil and refined fuel shipments normally pass. Following escalating conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran, oil flows through the passage have been severely disrupted after Iran effectively restricted transit in retaliation. The resulting shock has reverberated through global energy markets, sharply driving up prices and tightening supply.
Despite a recently announced temporary ceasefire by Donald Trump, benchmark crude prices have remained elevated at around $96 per barrel—well above the roughly $72 level seen before the conflict began—reflecting continued uncertainty over whether stability in the region can be restored.
Jet fuel markets have been particularly hard hit. According to industry data, global prices have more than doubled compared with last year, reaching approximately $1,650 per tonne. Europe has experienced a steep 138% year-on-year increase, while Asia has seen even sharper spikes, with prices up by about 163%. The surge reflects a global scramble for limited alternative supplies as Gulf exports become harder to access.
Industry analysts warn that the situation could quickly translate into operational disruptions for airlines. Smaller airports, which typically rely on regular deliveries and maintain limited storage capacity of around four to five weeks, are considered especially vulnerable. Once those reserves begin to deplete, airlines may be forced to cancel or consolidate routes.
Aviation economists note that carriers are likely to prioritise high-demand routes while cutting less profitable leisure services first. This could result in early cancellations on short-haul and holiday routes, potentially within weeks if supply conditions do not improve.
Some airlines have already begun adjusting operations. Regional carriers in the UK have suspended or reduced services on selected routes, while several international airlines across Asia, Europe, and the Pacific have trimmed schedules in response to rising fuel costs. Even larger operators are reassessing capacity, with suggestions that some may consider reducing overall flight numbers if prices remain elevated.
Fuel logistics are also becoming increasingly strained. The final shipments of jet fuel from the Gulf region to Europe are already arriving at destination ports, with tankers completing deliveries to locations including Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. With more than 60% of Europe’s jet fuel traditionally sourced from Gulf refineries—and a significant share transported through the Strait of Hormuz—the region’s dependence on the corridor has become a critical vulnerability.
As supplies from the Middle East diminish, European buyers are being forced to compete more aggressively with Asian markets for alternative sources, further driving up costs and tightening availability. Unlike crude oil, jet fuel has limited flexibility in rerouting logistics, making it especially exposed to disruptions in maritime shipping lanes.
Beyond immediate operational challenges, the wider economic implications are becoming a growing concern. Rising airfares are expected to contribute to inflationary pressure, but industry leaders warn that actual shortages could have a far more severe impact—potentially forcing reductions in travel demand, limiting tourism flows, and disrupting trade and logistics networks that depend on air transport.
ACI Europe has urged stronger monitoring and coordinated action from EU authorities, warning that the situation could deteriorate further as demand increases ahead of the peak summer travel season, when aviation plays a central role in the tourism economy.
Meanwhile, global airline leadership continues to stress that even a reopening of key shipping routes may not bring immediate relief. Industry representatives note that rebuilding depleted inventories and stabilising supply chains could take several months, even under improved geopolitical conditions.
With passenger demand previously forecast to grow by nearly 5% in 2026, the unfolding fuel crisis now presents a significant uncertainty for airlines, airports, and millions of travellers planning summer journeys across Europe and beyond.