The estimate emerged from a series of high-level engagements held on April 22 and 23, 2026, convened by the Minister of Aviation and Airspace Management, bringing together key players across aviation regulation, petroleum distribution, and airline operations.
Participants included representatives of the Ministry of Aviation, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), airline operators, and aviation fuel marketers.
Following the discussions, stakeholders agreed to set up a technical committee to assess structural challenges in the aviation fuel market and propose practical interventions aimed at improving stability and supply efficiency.
The committee, which later met under the coordination of the NMDPRA on April 24, 2026, outlined indicative pricing benchmarks based on Platts average rates recorded between April 17 and 23, 2026. It projected that end-user prices would fall within N1,760 to N1,988 per litre in Lagos, while Abuja could see prices between N1,809 and N2,037 per litre.
However, the committee cautioned that actual market prices could fluctuate beyond the projected range, citing factors such as global geopolitical tensions, logistics costs, and variations in supplier operations.
To improve distribution efficiency, the committee recommended that regulators direct marketers to sell aviation fuel directly to airline operators within defined timelines, reducing layers in the supply chain.
It also proposed a review of pricing components, including recent premium adjustments and refinery-related cost changes, to enhance price stability and transparency in the sector.
In addition, closer coordination between NMDPRA, FAAN, and NCAA was advised to streamline airside operations, particularly through stricter validation of distributors with adequate infrastructure and possible rationalisation of operators based on agreed standards.
The issue of unpaid obligations within the sector also featured prominently, with the committee urging the Ministry of Aviation to facilitate a dialogue between fuel marketers and airline operators to resolve outstanding debts.
To ease liquidity pressure on airlines, marketers were further encouraged to consider a 30-day credit arrangement framework, while the committee also recommended the inclusion of aviation fuel under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy as part of broader efforts to stabilise supply and pricing.
The recommendations are expected to feed into ongoing policy reviews aimed at improving cost predictability and operational efficiency within Nigeria’s aviation sector.