The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) has increased the official selling prices of all 37 Nigerian crude grades for May-loading cargoes, reflecting the impact of rising geopolitical tensions and stronger global oil benchmarks.
According to a report by Oilprice.com, the adjustment shows a sharp upward revision across key grades, with Bonny Light—the country’s flagship crude—rising by $6.13 per barrel compared to April levels. Forcados crude also recorded an increase of $7.01 per barrel.
The development comes amid heightened volatility in the global oil market, driven largely by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted supply expectations and strengthened crude prices worldwide.
Market data showed that Bonny Light climbed to about $124.86 per barrel on Tuesday, trading roughly $14 above Brent crude, which itself surged past $110 per barrel. Brent futures have remained elevated as concerns persist that the conflict could stretch into a prolonged geopolitical crisis, further tightening global supply.
Industry sentiment has been further unsettled by stalled diplomatic efforts, including unsuccessful talks over the weekend in Islamabad and comments from US President Donald Trump expressing dissatisfaction with Iran’s stance on ceasefire discussions. The uncertainty has reinforced fears among traders of a sustained supply disruption.
Additional market developments, including speculation around the United Arab Emirates’ reported exit from OPEC, have also added to volatility and prompted questions about potential shifts in Middle Eastern energy dynamics.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that Bonny Light had already risen by nearly $2 earlier in the week amid speculation about the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route. Before the escalation of tensions in late February, Bonny Light traded at about $74 per barrel, highlighting the scale of the recent price surge.
While higher crude prices are boosting Nigeria’s oil revenue outlook, analysts warn that the development may also have domestic cost implications. Increased crude prices could translate into higher feedstock costs for local refineries, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, potentially influencing petrol pricing in the domestic market.
Energy economists have described the situation as a double-edged sword for Nigeria—offering fiscal gains on one hand while increasing inflationary pressure on households on the other. Rising fuel prices have already contributed to higher transport costs and broader inflationary trends, disproportionately affecting low-income earners.
A former president of the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, Professor Adeola Adenikinju, noted that the situation underscores the need for targeted social interventions.
“This is the time that Nigeria should say, ‘Look, we are sending some cash to those poor people who are vulnerable,’” he said, warning that many informal sector workers would be left out of existing wage-related relief measures.
However, he also highlighted structural challenges, particularly the absence of a comprehensive database of vulnerable citizens, which limits the government’s ability to implement effective targeted support programmes.
As global oil markets remain on edge, Nigeria finds itself balancing increased revenue prospects from higher crude prices with the domestic challenge of managing inflationary pressures and protecting vulnerable households.