Nigeria’s oil and gas industry has renewed its commitment to achieving a crude production target of three million barrels per day (3mbpd), even as stakeholders warn that the goal can only be realised through significant reductions in production costs and a stronger reliance on technology, efficiency, and regulatory reform.
The position was reinforced at the 2026 Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) in Abuja, where regulators, operators, and policymakers converged to assess the future trajectory of the upstream sector.
Despite Nigeria’s persistent struggle to maintain production levels close to 2mbpd, industry leaders maintained that the 3mbpd benchmark remains achievable—provided structural inefficiencies and cost challenges are addressed.
High Production Costs Undermine Competitiveness
A recurring concern across discussions was Nigeria’s relatively high cost of crude oil production, estimated by some operators at around $40 per barrel—among the highest globally. Stakeholders warned that such cost levels weaken competitiveness and limit the country’s ability to attract long-term investment.
In her remarks, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stressed that production growth must go beyond drilling expansion and focus on smarter execution frameworks.
She noted that sustainable output increases would require policy and regulatory environments capable of attracting capital, encouraging innovation, and enabling digitalised oilfield operations. According to her, resource abundance alone does not guarantee value creation without effective alignment of policy, funding, and technology.
Eyesan also highlighted ongoing reforms within the commission, including data-driven regulatory oversight, which she said had helped attract over $10 billion in new upstream investments. She further disclosed the sanctioning of a new Final Investment Decision (FID) in the deepwater segment—an indication of renewed investor interest in Nigeria’s offshore assets.
NNPCL: Efficiency, Not Just Expansion, Will Define Output Growth
Representing the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari, the Executive Vice President for Upstream, Udobong Ntia, said Nigeria already possesses the necessary assets and regulatory framework to reach the 3mbpd target.
However, he emphasised that success will depend on how efficiently these resources are deployed.
According to him, the future of the upstream sector will be determined by how effectively barriers to production are regulated, financed, secured, and optimised. He also commended regulatory interventions that have resolved legacy disputes and revived stalled investments, noting that such actions have helped unlock over $24 billion in capital inflows.
NMDPRA Highlights Funding and Technology Gap
The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed—represented by Saidu Mohammed—also underscored the importance of funding stability, advanced technology, and regulatory predictability in achieving production targets.
He noted that Nigeria is positioning itself not only to meet domestic energy demand but also to strengthen its role as a regional energy hub with export capacity. This ambition, he added, is closely tied to the country’s broader gas expansion agenda under the Decade of Gas initiative.
PTDF Calls for Skills-Driven Transformation
The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) emphasised that human capital development will be central to unlocking the industry’s future potential. Executive Secretary Prof. Shu’aibu Aliyu stressed that the sector must shift focus from production volumes alone to optimisation, innovation, and operational efficiency.
The fund highlighted ongoing efforts to strengthen training in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, and the Internet of Things, aimed at preparing a workforce capable of supporting digitally enabled oilfield operations.
Technology, Capital, and Policy Alignment Seen as Key
Across presentations and discussions, a consistent theme emerged: Nigeria’s oil and gas sector must move beyond traditional extraction models toward a more technology-driven, data-enabled, and efficiency-focused framework.
Stakeholders noted that recent production improvements in some fields have been driven less by new discoveries and more by enhanced performance in existing and ageing assets—underscoring the importance of optimisation over expansion alone.
Outlook
While optimism remains high that Nigeria can reach the 3mbpd production target, industry leaders agree that achieving it will require more than ambition. Lowering production costs, accelerating digital transformation, attracting sustained investment, and maintaining stable regulatory reforms will be critical to unlocking the country’s full upstream potential.
For now, the consensus is clear: the target is achievable—but only if efficiency becomes as important as output.