Global oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after a multi-day rally, as markets reassessed the implications of the OPEC shake-up following the unexpected decision by the United Arab Emirates to exit the producer group, even as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin supply risk premiums.

Brent crude futures for June slipped marginally to $111.25 per barrel after seven consecutive sessions of gains, while the more actively traded July contract fell to $104.12. Analysts attributed the slight pullback to profit-taking and recalibration of supply expectations following the UAE’s move, which could eventually signal higher output outside OPEC quota constraints. However, market observers noted that any immediate increase in supply remains limited due to disruptions linked to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route.

According to market commentary, the short-term supply outlook remains tight as geopolitical tensions persist between the United States and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly directed officials to prepare for an extended maritime blockade strategy targeting Iranian oil exports, further constraining flows from the region.

The escalation follows a fragile ceasefire in the wider U.S.-Israeli-Iranian confrontation, with both sides still at odds over formal conflict resolution terms. Iran’s restriction of access through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass—has intensified fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Market analysts say the combination of reduced shipping access and strategic economic pressure has kept oil prices structurally elevated despite the recent dip. Some forecasts suggest that continued restrictions could further drain global inventories.

Supporting this view, data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated a further drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles, with inventories falling by 1.79 million barrels in the latest week, alongside declines in gasoline and distillate reserves—signalling sustained demand and tightening supply conditions.

While the UAE’s exit from OPEC introduces longer-term questions about production policy alignment, traders remain focused on immediate geopolitical risks, which continue to dominate price direction in the global crude market.