The world’s largest memory chipmaker is expected to report operating profit of about 40.5 trillion won ($26.9 billion) for January–March, marking a six-fold increase from the same period last year and nearly matching its full-year 2025 profit of 43.6 trillion won. The forecast, based on an LSEG SmartEstimate from 29 analysts, also points to a roughly 50% jump in revenue.
The strong performance is being driven by what Samsung has described as an “unprecedented supercycle” in memory chips, as tech giants ramp up spending on AI infrastructure. Some analysts are even more optimistic, with Citigroup projecting profits as high as 51 trillion won. Industry observers say current market conditions are among the most favorable in years, with tight supply and robust demand pushing chip prices sharply higher.
However, despite the bullish outlook, investors are increasingly wary of potential headwinds. The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven up energy costs and raised concerns about supply chain disruptions for critical production materials. These pressures could, in turn, slow the pace of AI-related investments by major technology firms.
There are also early signs of softening in spot prices for DRAM (dynamic random access memory) chips, as rising costs for smartphones, PCs, and other devices begin to weigh on consumer demand. Additionally, new efficiency innovations such as TurboQuant, introduced by Google, have contributed to a recent selloff in memory chip stocks. Samsung shares have fallen about 14% since late February, though they remain up roughly 50% for the year overall.
Still, many experts believe the current cooling in prices is temporary. Persistent supply shortages and strong backlog demand continue to underpin a positive long-term outlook. Market research firm TrendForce noted that DRAM contract prices doubled in the first quarter and could rise a further 58–63% in the second quarter.
Samsung is also seeking to stabilize its business by negotiating longer-term supply agreements of three to five years with major customers, according to co-CEO Jun Young-hyun.
Beyond chips, however, challenges remain. The company’s contract chip manufacturing division—competing with TSMC—is expected to remain loss-making, despite a recent partnership with Nvidia to produce AI inference processors. Meanwhile, its smartphone and display businesses are projected to see profits cut by about half due to higher component costs and intensifying competition.
Labour tensions also loom, as unions in South Korea push for changes to bonus structures and have threatened strike action in May, adding another layer of uncertainty to Samsung’s otherwise stellar start to the year.