Nigeria’s oil trade landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with the country importing crude oil worth $1.39 billion in the first quarter of 2026 even as domestic refining capacity continues to expand.
New data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reveals that crude oil imports rose sharply from $340 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $1.39 billion in Q1 2026, representing a staggering 308.82 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase. The development underscores a growing trend in which local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, increasingly rely on imported crude grades to sustain production.
The surge comes at a time when Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, is simultaneously strengthening its position as an exporter of refined petroleum products. Industry analysts say the trend reflects changing market realities rather than a decline in domestic crude output.
According to the CBN’s Balance of Payments Highlights for the first quarter of 2026, crude oil imports accounted for approximately 81.8 per cent of the country’s total imports of crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products, which stood at $1.70 billion during the review period.
The figures suggest that despite regulatory efforts aimed at improving local crude supply under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation framework, domestic refiners continue to source substantial volumes of feedstock from international markets.
Fuel Import Bill Falls as Local Refining Gains Momentum
While crude oil imports surged, Nigeria recorded a dramatic decline in refined petroleum product imports. The country’s fuel import bill dropped by 87.5 per cent to $310 million in Q1 2026 from $2.48 billion in the preceding quarter.
The sharp reduction highlights the growing impact of local refining operations, led primarily by the Dangote refinery, which has steadily increased output and reduced the country’s dependence on imported fuel.
Confirming the development, the apex bank stated:
“Refined petroleum products imports declined to $0.31bn in Q1 2026, from $2.48bn in Q4 2025.”
The reduction in fuel imports has become one of the major drivers of Nigeria’s improving external trade position and foreign exchange outlook.
Refined Product Exports Continue to Rise
At the same time, exports of refined petroleum products recorded significant growth. According to the CBN, refined product exports rose by 20.3 per cent to $2.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $1.97 billion in the previous quarter.
The trend points to a gradual shift in Nigeria’s energy sector—from being heavily dependent on imported fuels to becoming an increasingly important exporter of refined petroleum products.
Industry observers believe the development reflects the growing contribution of domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote facility, which has continued to expand production capacity and penetrate export markets across Africa and beyond.
Trade Surplus Strengthens on Back of Oil Earnings
Nigeria’s overall trade performance improved considerably during the period, supported by stronger crude oil exports and lower fuel imports.
The CBN reported that the country’s goods account surplus climbed to $5.95 billion in Q1 2026, compared to $1.77 billion in the previous quarter and $3.35 billion during the corresponding period in 2025.
According to the report:
“The goods account (a major sub-account in the current account) recorded a significantly higher surplus of $5.95bn in Q1 2026, as against $1.77bn and $3.35bn recorded in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2025.”
Crude oil export earnings increased by 19.79 per cent to $8.11 billion from $6.77 billion in Q4 2025, while gas exports rose by 12.95 per cent to $2.53 billion from $2.24 billion. Refined petroleum exports also contributed positively, reaching $2.37 billion.
Overall exports climbed to $15.49 billion during the quarter, up from $13.36 billion previously, while total imports declined by 17.69 per cent to $9.54 billion from $11.59 billion.
These developments helped boost Nigeria’s current account surplus to $4.98 billion, a substantial increase from $1.40 billion recorded in the previous quarter and $3.41 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.
The CBN noted:
“Provisional balance of payments statistics for Q1 2026 show a current account surplus of $4.98bn, which was higher than the $1.40bn and $3.41bn recorded in the preceding quarter and corresponding period, respectively.”
The bank attributed the stronger current account performance to rising earnings from crude oil, gas and refined petroleum exports, lower fuel import costs, and reduced net outflows on the primary income account.
Despite the positive indicators, Nigeria’s overall balance of payments surplus eased slightly to $2.38 billion from $2.67 billion in the preceding quarter. However, external reserves strengthened, rising to $48.35 billion at the end of March 2026 from $45.75 billion at the close of December 2025.
Domestic Crude Supply Challenges Persist
The latest figures emerged against the backdrop of continued concerns over crude supply to local refineries.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that domestic refineries received only 28.5 million barrels of crude oil during the first quarter of 2026, despite significantly higher volumes being allocated under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation framework.
According to the commission, 61.9 million barrels were allocated to local refiners, while producers collectively offered 68.7 million barrels. Yet actual deliveries amounted to just 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate estimated at between 36 and 46 per cent.
The gap between available crude and actual refinery intake has raised fresh concerns about feedstock adequacy and the sustainability of Nigeria’s refining ambitions.
Nevertheless, regulators have reiterated their commitment to improving crude availability for local refining as part of the Federal Government’s broader energy security agenda.
Why Dangote Is Buying More Foreign Crude
Industry stakeholders say economics, rather than supply shortages alone, is driving the Dangote refinery’s growing appetite for imported crude.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) explained that pricing structures and crude quality differences play a major role in sourcing decisions.
Speaking in a recent interview, CORAN Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, said:
“So one of the major issues we are having with Dangote buying more crude from the U.S. is because of the type of products offered and the pricing. It is based on commercials. So producers sell more Brent crude at a premium, but the import from other countries is WTI, another grade that is utilised by the refinery.”
According to Idoko, the refinery’s preference for imported grades is largely influenced by operational compatibility and commercial considerations rather than a lack of interest in Nigerian crude.
He argued that current domestic pricing mechanisms place local refiners at a competitive disadvantage when compared with international sourcing options. As a result, he called for a pricing framework tailored to the realities of domestic refining.
Idoko maintained that aligning crude pricing with local refining needs would strengthen Nigeria’s refining value chain, encourage greater utilisation of domestic crude, and reduce dependence on imported feedstock over the long term.
As Nigeria’s refining sector continues to evolve, the challenge for policymakers will be balancing the country’s growing status as a refined-products exporter with the need to ensure reliable, competitive access to locally produced crude oil.