In an investment note, the brokerage said SpaceX has built one of the world's strongest aerospace businesses through its integrated model, which combines launch services, Starlink's satellite internet network and growing investments in artificial intelligence.
According to HSBC, that combination could eventually create a powerful ecosystem capable of driving sustained long-term growth. However, the bank cautioned that investors appear to be assigning significant value to projects that have yet to prove their commercial viability.
Among those initiatives are orbital data centres, AI computing infrastructure in space and semiconductor manufacturing through the company's Terafab project.
HSBC maintained a $115 price target for the company, a valuation it said is broadly in line with SpaceX's current market price.
While acknowledging SpaceX's commanding position in commercial launch services and Starlink's leadership in the satellite connectivity market, the brokerage argued that the company's ambitions in artificial intelligence face a far more competitive landscape.
The report noted that Elon Musk's AI venture, xAI, still trails leading AI developers in enterprise adoption and computing capacity, meaning the company will likely require substantial capital investments to compete with major technology firms.
HSBC also questioned whether space-based data centres could become commercially viable within the next decade and suggested that the potential market for Starlink's internet services may be considerably smaller than the company's own projections.
Despite those concerns, the brokerage forecasts strong revenue growth over the coming years.
HSBC expects SpaceX's revenue to rise from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $38.2 billion in 2026, driven largely by the continued expansion of Starlink and increasing contributions from its AI-related businesses.
However, the bank believes those growth plans will come at a significant cost.
It projects that SpaceX will remain unprofitable on a Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) basis through 2027 as heavy spending on infrastructure, research and technology development continues to weigh on earnings.
The report also estimates that free cash flow will not turn positive until 2030 after the company uses approximately $106 billion in cumulative cash to fund its long-term expansion strategy.
To determine its valuation, HSBC said it adopted a sum-of-the-parts approach while applying what it described as a two-times "innovation premium," reflecting the market's historical tendency to value companies led by Elon Musk at levels above conventional financial metrics.
The brokerage also outlined a significantly more optimistic scenario, estimating a potential "blue-sky" valuation of $293 per share if SpaceX successfully commercialises its Starship programme, accelerates Starlink adoption and generates faster-than-expected returns from its artificial intelligence investments.
Beyond the company's financial outlook, HSBC urged investors to pay close attention to governance issues.
The brokerage noted that Musk is expected to retain effective control of SpaceX through his voting rights, while future share lock-up expirations following upcoming earnings announcements could substantially increase the number of publicly traded shares and influence market performance.
Overall, HSBC said SpaceX remains one of the most influential companies in the aerospace sector, but argued that much of the market's optimism already reflects expectations for technologies that are still in their early stages of development.