Nigeria’s inflationary pressure recorded a slight moderation in June 2026, as the country’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.91 per cent from 15.93 per cent in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.
The decline represents the first drop in the inflation rate after three consecutive monthly increases recorded between February and May. Inflation had risen from 15.06 per cent in February to 15.38 per cent in March, 15.69 per cent in April and 15.93 per cent in May before the latest improvement.
According to the NBS, the latest figure also reflects a significant decline compared with the 25.29 per cent recorded in June 2025.
The bureau stated, “In June 2026, the Headline inflation rate was 15.91 per cent, down from 15.93 per cent in May 2026 and stood at 25.29 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025). Looking at the movement, the June 2026 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.02 per cent compared to the May 2026 Headline inflation rate.”
The report indicated that the Consumer Price Index increased to 143.0 in June from 140.7 in May, representing a 2.3-point rise during the period.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation also slowed, with the rate of increase in average prices reducing to 1.66 per cent in June from 1.75 per cent in May.
The NBS explained that, “This means that in June 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in May 2026.”
Food prices continue to drive pressure
Despite the slight decline in overall inflation, food prices remained a major concern for households as food inflation increased on a monthly basis.
Food inflation stood at 17.52 per cent year-on-year in June, significantly lower than the 25.41 per cent recorded during the same period in 2025. However, month-on-month food inflation accelerated to 3.75 per cent from 2.98 per cent in May.
The increase was linked to rising prices of several commonly consumed food items, including fresh pepper, tomatoes, crayfish, beef, garri, yam and other agricultural products.
The NBS said, “This can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Crayfish, Pepper (Fresh), Tomatoes (Fresh), Green Peas (dried), Fresh Pepper, Yam Flour (Sold loose), Water Yam, Beef, Banana, Cassava Flour, Cow Pea, Garri, Irish Potatoes, Yam Tuber, etc.”
The continued pressure on food prices highlights the challenges faced by consumers despite the broader decline in inflation. Increased production costs, transportation expenses and supply challenges have continued to influence the prices of essential commodities across markets.
Global oil market concerns persist
The slowdown in inflation came amid concerns that rising global crude oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict could increase domestic inflationary pressure.
Analysts had expressed concerns that prolonged geopolitical tensions could affect fuel prices, transportation costs and eventually food prices, given Nigeria’s dependence on fuel-powered logistics for the movement of agricultural goods.
However, the June figures showed that these pressures had not translated into a higher overall inflation rate during the month.
Food, transport and housing remain major contributors
A breakdown of the inflation components showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.37 percentage points.
Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 2.06 percentage points, while transport accounted for 1.70 percentage points.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 1.34 percentage points, education services added 0.99 percentage points, and health contributed 0.96 percentage points.
Core inflation declines
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural products and energy costs, also recorded a decline.
The NBS report showed that core inflation fell to 15.92 per cent year-on-year in June from 25.41 per cent recorded in June 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation slowed to 1.66 per cent from 1.94 per cent in May.
The report further showed that the average headline inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2026 stood at 17.63 per cent, compared with 29.82 per cent recorded in June 2025.
Similarly, the average annual food inflation rate declined to 16.42 per cent from 31.93 per cent during the same period.
Urban and rural inflation trends
The urban inflation rate stood at 16.08 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation was recorded at 15.48 per cent.
On a monthly basis, urban inflation increased slightly to 2.13 per cent from 1.99 per cent, while rural inflation slowed significantly to 0.52 per cent from 1.17 per cent recorded in May.
State-level inflation differences
Inflation trends varied across states, with Niger recording the highest annual all-items inflation rate at 42.23 per cent.
Kogi followed with 41.59 per cent, while the Federal Capital Territory recorded 39.91 per cent.
Imo recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 19.47 per cent, followed by Ebonyi at 20.79 per cent and Katsina at 21.87 per cent.
For food inflation, Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 53.02 per cent, followed by Niger at 43.83 per cent and Benue at 40.83 per cent.
Katsina posted the lowest food inflation rate at 19.15 per cent, while Rivers and Imo recorded 23.81 per cent and 24.60 per cent respectively.
The latest CPI figures suggest that while Nigeria’s inflation trajectory is showing signs of moderation, food price pressures remain a major challenge for households and policymakers.