Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have increased nearly seven-fold since 2023, reflecting the growing impact of the Dangote refinery on domestic fuel supplies and the country’s position in regional and international petroleum markets.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of just 79,000 bpd in 2023, based on Vortexa data.
The sharp increase highlights a significant shift in Nigeria’s petroleum trade. As domestic refining capacity has expanded, the country has reduced its dependence on imported refined products while sending more fuel to overseas markets, particularly Europe and other African countries.
Dangote Refinery Drives Supply Growth
A major factor behind the change has been the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone near Lagos. The facility, operated by Dangote Group, began operations in 2024 and is now Nigeria’s largest refinery.
The EIA said the increased availability of refined petroleum products from the refinery has helped reduce imports and increase exports, making Nigeria more self-sufficient in refined fuels.
Product shipments expanded following the start of Dangote’s operations and increased further after maintenance and expansion work was completed in February 2026. The timing also coincided with supply disruptions linked to constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, creating additional opportunities for Nigerian refined products in international markets.
The refinery’s maintenance and expansion increased its crude oil distillation capacity from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, allowing it to process more crude and potentially supply larger volumes of refined products to both domestic and export markets.
Exports to Europe and Africa Rise
The growth in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports has been particularly noticeable in shipments bound for Europe and Africa.
Seaborne exports to Europe reached 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, up significantly from 40,000 bpd in 2025 and just 15,000 bpd in 2023.
Exports to other African markets also increased, climbing to nearly 120,000 bpd, compared with 89,000 bpd a year earlier. The figures suggest Nigeria is becoming an increasingly important supplier of refined petroleum products within the region.
At the same time, domestic and intra-Nigerian shipments have expanded considerably. Such shipments averaged 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and only 33,000 bpd in 2023.
The increase indicates that the expansion in refining capacity is not only supporting exports but is also improving the movement and availability of refined products within Nigeria.
Imports Decline Sharply
Nigeria’s growing refining capacity has also had a notable effect on petroleum product imports.
In 2023, the country imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products. By the second quarter of 2026, however, seaborne imports had dropped to less than 130,000 bpd.
The decline represents a substantial reduction in Nigeria’s reliance on foreign refined fuels and marks a major change for a country that historically depended heavily on imports despite being one of the world's major crude oil producers.
The combination of lower imports and higher exports points to a rapidly changing petroleum trade balance, with the Dangote refinery playing a central role in the transformation.
As refinery output continues to expand, Nigeria could strengthen its position as a regional refining and fuel-export hub, particularly if domestic production remains sufficient to meet local demand while leaving additional volumes available for international markets.