An analysis of launch data compiled by astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell shows that Starlink missions have taken up a larger share of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 schedule every year. Starlink accounted for 54% of Falcon 9 launches in 2020, but that figure has climbed to about 79% so far in 2026, highlighting how much of SpaceX’s launch capability is now dedicated to expanding its own satellite network.
The shift has left some competing satellite operators struggling to secure rides into space. According to eight sources familiar with the situation, at least seven spacecraft companies have recently been informed that Falcon 9 missions are fully booked across different categories until 2028 or 2029.
The growing shortage of launch opportunities is closely linked to SpaceX’s plans to move toward its next-generation Starship rocket. The company is developing Starship as a fully reusable system that it says will eventually reduce the cost of putting payloads into orbit. However, experts say the transition period could limit the number of available launches for outside customers because SpaceX itself will need Starship missions to expand Starlink and fulfill major contracts.
Starlink Becomes SpaceX’s Biggest Strategic Asset
The increasing dominance of Starlink launches reflects the economic value SpaceX places on its satellite business. Analysts estimate that using a Starship launch to deploy a large batch of Starlink satellites could generate tens of millions of dollars more in value for SpaceX compared with carrying a commercial customer’s payload.
That calculation is based on the potential returns from adding more satellites to Starlink’s global internet network, which has already become a major contributor to SpaceX’s finances.
Starlink, which has launched more than 10,000 satellites, generated about $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, while SpaceX’s broader space and launch business brought in about $4.1 billion. The satellite network accounted for roughly 60% of SpaceX’s total revenue last year, according to industry estimates.
Akhil Rao, chief economist at space industry research firm Rational Futures and a former NASA employee, said SpaceX faces a business decision over how it uses its limited launch capacity.
"SpaceX has a scarce resource, which is their own launch capacity," Rao said.
"If they were to use the same launch capacity for an external customer, then they are, in a sense, giving up the profits that they could have earned by flying their own internal satellites."
SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment. However, the company has previously said it is aiming for late 2026 for Starship’s first orbital mission that will carry a new generation of Starlink satellites.
Starship Could Reshape the Future of Space Access
SpaceX has ambitious plans for Starship beyond traditional rocket launches. The company has said it intends to use the vehicle to expand Starlink and eventually deploy as many as one million solar-powered satellites designed to function as orbital artificial intelligence data centers.
The company’s vision connects the future of space infrastructure with the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, where large-scale computing capacity could potentially move beyond Earth.
SpaceX has also secured a NASA agreement to use Starship as a lunar lander as early as 2028. The contract requires multiple in-space refueling missions and extensive testing, which could consume significant launch resources.
Although SpaceX has already signed some commercial customers for Starship, industry experts believe the company’s internal priorities and government commitments may leave limited room for outside customers during Starship’s early operational years.
One satellite industry executive, who said his company had faced difficulties securing Falcon 9 launch opportunities, questioned whether SpaceX would prioritize commercial customers over its own projects.
"Elon could make Starship widely commercially available and let everyone ride on it for super-cheap, but I don't know why they would do that," the executive said.
"If the AI market is anywhere close to what they're projecting, the opportunity cost of not flying data centers is just immense," he added.
SpaceX acknowledged in its IPO prospectus that it "may prioritize our own launch payloads over additional U.S. government contracts or third-party customers."
Smaller Space Companies Face Growing Pressure
The Falcon 9 has long been considered the backbone of the U.S. commercial space industry because of its reusable first-stage booster and frequent launch schedule.
However, launch costs have increased over time. The price of a Falcon 9 mission has risen from about $54 million in 2013 to approximately $74 million today.
Analysts warn that a more vertically integrated SpaceX — one focused heavily on launching its own satellites — could make access to orbit more difficult for smaller companies developing spacecraft but lacking their own rockets.
"There's nothing anywhere in the industry that says launch prices are going to drop, or that it's even going to be available at scale anytime in the future," another satellite executive said after struggling to secure a Falcon launch.
"The valley of death is going to get a hell of a lot deeper for space companies in general," the executive added, warning that younger startups could face greater financial challenges.
The broader space sector includes more than 500 companies building spacecraft or operating satellites, representing around $50 billion in investment since 2000, according to BryceTech senior analyst Phil Smith.
SpaceX Rivals Struggle to Close the Launch Gap
SpaceX’s dominance has been difficult for competitors to challenge because few companies have matched Falcon 9’s combination of reusability, reliability and launch frequency.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, viewed as a potential competitor to Falcon 9, suffered a launchpad explosion in May and is expected to remain grounded until at least the end of the year.
United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket has also faced delays after a booster-related issue in February. ULA serves as the primary launch provider for Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellite network, which competes with Starlink in the broadband satellite market.
Rocket Lab, currently the second-largest launch provider by launch frequency behind SpaceX, is developing a fully reusable rocket called Neutron and is expanding into satellite services through its planned acquisition of communications satellite company Iridium Communications.
Iridium’s chief executive Matt Desch said the deal could provide greater control over satellite deployment costs.
"Now, we can envision doing it more cost effectively and faster, which means more cash to generate for ourselves and invest in other services and businesses," Desch told Reuters.
He added that Starlink’s success was closely tied to SpaceX’s ability to launch satellites affordably.
"If Starlink was spending the 10, 15, 20 billion dollars with someone else to launch those satellites, I don't think they would exist today," Desch said.
Rocket Lab also produces satellite components, including solar panels, and said that side of its business has generated more revenue than its launch operations for several years. However, the company said its success still depends on a healthy launch market.
Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said the company’s approach differs from SpaceX’s vertically integrated model.
"Our business model is just different to SpaceX - we set out from the beginning to provide merchant components and systems to our customers," Beck said.
"If nobody can launch anything, all of those components businesses dry up too. So we're very self-interested to make sure that everybody else launches."
As SpaceX moves deeper into building its own space ecosystem, the competition in the launch industry may increasingly depend not only on who can build better rockets, but also on who controls access to orbit.