Yahyah said the opportunity would, however, depend on whether the region's 16 countries could move beyond individual national interests and establish systems that allow energy products, capital, data and expertise to move efficiently across borders.
He made the call on Wednesday at the second West Africa Refined Fuel Market Conference in Abuja, attended by regulators, refiners, traders, financiers and other energy stakeholders working towards the development of a transparent regional pricing system for refined petroleum products.
The conference was jointly hosted by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, S&P Global Commodity Insights and the West Africa Regulators Forum.
The two-day event was themed, “Funding West Africa Infrastructure & Distribution to Create a Transparent Market for Regional Price Benchmarks.”
From potential to a changing market
Delivering the keynote presentation, Yahyah said developments in refining and changes in global energy markets had altered the outlook for West Africa's energy sector, arguing that the region had moved beyond the stage of merely being a market with huge potential.
He said the investments taking place across the energy value chain were beginning to create the foundations for a more sophisticated market, but warned that the next phase would require deliberate regional coordination.
He stated, “Once upon a time, a few months ago, this market was full of potential. But a couple of months have changed the dynamics, and we are now managing six steps for emerging markets in the energy platforms.
“With the presentation done yesterday and the big investments in refining and changing dynamics in global markets, we are no longer a potential; we are now at the crossroads for an infant or emerging market composition.”
According to him, the region's challenge is now to convert growing physical energy capacity into an integrated market that can support sustained cross-border trade.
He argued that building isolated projects in individual countries would not be enough to achieve that objective, particularly because the energy needs and infrastructure requirements of West African countries are interconnected.
‘Think in systems’
Yahyah said West Africa should change the way it approaches energy development by focusing on systems rather than individual projects.
He explained that a systems-based approach could accelerate the correction of supply and market imbalances while creating opportunities for businesses to operate across national boundaries.
The national honouree said, “How do you get there? If we think in projects, it will take us many, many years to get there. But if we think in systems, perhaps we can accelerate the correction of today’s imbalances.”
He said the ultimate goal should be for countries to retain their national identities and responsibilities while allowing energy transactions to take place at a regional level.
“So, what’s the next step? West Africa will stop competing nationally and transact regionally. That means we harmonise activities so that an operator with a license in Ghana can operate in Nigeria and can trade in Nigeria,” he said.
For such a market to function effectively, he said countries would need to agree on common product specifications, shared data standards and modern energy contracts.
They would also need to develop the physical infrastructure required to connect markets and establish a regional mechanism for resolving commercial disputes.
“And that will mean that we have common product specifications, we have shared data standards, we have a modern energy contract, we have infrastructure to drive it, and we have the regional dispute resolution mechanism. If we do that, it is possible that by 2035, we can have a market that is $3tn cumulative,” Yahyah said.
He envisaged a market that would be integrated with global trading platforms and supported by financial instruments capable of attracting debt and investment into the energy sector.
He added, “And this would mean, therefore, that the market has debt, it has integration, it is connected to global platforms, and the fiscal system where we see the fiscal system where we see the fiscal transaction, like if you look at the electricity market, a lot of cables connecting the region, the gas market, but trade is between 8 to 12 per cent.”
According to him, greater connectivity would enable transactions to respond to emerging opportunities instead of remaining constrained by national market boundaries.
Energy wealth versus energy poverty
Yahyah also drew attention to what he described as the contradiction between Africa's enormous energy resources and the continent's continuing energy-access deficit.
He said Africa represents about 20 per cent of the global population and produces roughly 7.5 per cent of global hydrocarbons, yet hundreds of millions of people remain in energy poverty.
West Africa, he said, faces an even more acute challenge, with a large proportion of its population lacking access to reliable and clean energy.
“West Africa, you can correlate these stylised facts for West Africa and think that West Africa too, we are at 45 per cent energy poverty and about 75 per cent without access to clean power,” he said.
For Yahyah, addressing the problem requires more than increasing oil and gas production.
He argued that the region must also develop the commercial infrastructure needed to capture a larger share of the value created after energy resources are produced.
Value beyond oil and gas
The RHG chairman said West Africa's energy opportunity extends beyond the ownership of crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum products.
He identified energy trading, market information, risk management, technology and price discovery as areas where substantial value could be created.
Yahyah observed that some of the world's most influential energy market institutions do not own the physical commodities that underpin their businesses.
Instead, he said, they derive their strength from the knowledge, methodologies, technology and human capital used to facilitate commodity transactions and establish market benchmarks.
“These institutions, they don’t own molecules; they don’t own the resources. What they own is knowledge; they own methodologies, they own technology, and they have very talented people who drive these markets,” he said.
He urged West African countries to develop similar capabilities and establish the market infrastructure needed to participate more effectively in global energy commerce.
Rather than attempting to build every capability independently, he said the region could partner with established international institutions while developing its own regional systems and expertise.
Proposed roles for regional hubs
Yahyah also outlined a possible structure for the regional market, with different countries and cities taking on specialised functions based on their geographic location and existing capabilities.
He proposed Senegal as a western gateway, Abidjan as a commercial and logistics hub, Ghana as a balancing and storage centre, and Lagos as an Atlantic hub for liquidity and refining.
He stated, “The West Africa region consists of 16 countries. We can get there if we follow the natural trend of market evolution.
“Already Senegal on the western side is the gateway, with a lot of potential, almost 250,000 miles of production. Abidjan should be the commercial and logistics hub. Ghana: balancing and storage. Lagos should be the hub, the Atlantic hub for liquidity and refinancing.”
He said such specialisation would enable countries to complement one another rather than duplicate infrastructure and compete for the same market functions.
But the arrangement, he stressed, would only work if the region harmonised its regulatory and commercial frameworks.
“West Africa will compete nationally and transact regionally. That means we harmonise activities so that one operator of a licensee in Ghana can operate in Nigeria and can trade in Nigeria,” he said.
“And that will mean that we have common product specifications, we have shared data standards, we have a modern energy contract, we have infrastructure to drive it, and we have the regional dispute resolution mechanism.”
Refining boom raises stakes
The proposal comes against the backdrop of efforts by West African regulators and industry players to establish a regional reference market for refined petroleum products.
For years, the region has remained heavily exposed to international price benchmarks, freight costs, supply disruptions and geopolitical shocks, despite its significant crude oil and gas resources.
The expansion of refining capacity in Nigeria, particularly with the emergence of the Dangote refinery, has changed the region's supply outlook and raised the prospect of increased local production of refined petroleum products.
The development could also create the conditions for greater regional price discovery, as more products become available within West Africa instead of being sourced predominantly from outside the region.
However, Yahyah cautioned that increased refining capacity by itself would not automatically create a mature regional market.
He said the physical infrastructure must be matched by financial, regulatory, technological, logistical and human-capital systems capable of supporting transparent cross-border transactions.
Building the infrastructure for integration
The proposed regional model would connect physical energy infrastructure with financial markets and information systems, allowing products, money and data to move more efficiently across borders.
Such integration could improve liquidity, strengthen price discovery and provide producers, refiners, traders and consumers with access to a broader regional market.
It could also make West Africa more attractive to international investors by replacing fragmented national markets with a larger marketplace governed by common rules and standards.
The push for regional integration is particularly significant as stakeholders seek to develop a credible benchmark for refined petroleum products in West Africa. A transparent regional pricing mechanism could provide market participants with clearer signals on supply, demand and pricing while reducing some of the uncertainties associated with fragmented markets.
Yahyah's proposal ultimately calls for a shift in mindset: from treating West Africa's energy markets as 16 separate national systems to viewing them as interconnected components of one regional marketplace.
If the regulatory, infrastructure and financial barriers can be addressed, the region could not only expand energy trade but also capture more of the value created through refining, logistics, finance, data, technology and price discovery.
For Yahyah, the $3tn projection is therefore tied not simply to the volume of energy resources available in West Africa, but to the region's ability to build the systems required to trade those resources efficiently and competitively.