Both airline groups submitted binding bids in July, but the Portuguese government reportedly found the proposals too closely matched to select a preferred investor, prompting it to open a final round of negotiations expected to run for several weeks.
The financial value of the competing offers has not been made public, and neither bidder has entered exclusive negotiations with the Portuguese government.
Beyond the ownership of a European airline, however, the contest carries significant implications for Africa.
TAP operates about 80 weekly flights between Portugal and 14 destinations across nine African countries, giving it one of the most extensive air networks linking Europe with Portuguese-speaking Africa.
Its African operations cover Angola, Mozambique, Cabo Verde, Guinea-Bissau, São Tomé and Príncipe, Morocco, Senegal, The Gambia and Ghana, with services to major cities including Luanda, Maputo, Accra, Dakar and Casablanca.
For several of these countries, TAP provides an important link to Portugal and the wider European aviation market. The connections are supported not only by tourism and trade but also by long-standing historical and family relationships between Portugal and its former colonies.
The airline also serves sizeable African diaspora communities, making its flights important for business travellers, students, tourists and families travelling between Africa and Europe.
Africa and Brazil Key to TAP's Growth
TAP’s Lisbon hub gives the airline an additional advantage because passengers travelling from African cities can connect onward to destinations across Europe and the Americas.
The African routes therefore provide value beyond the revenue generated by individual flights. Passengers arriving in Lisbon from African markets can continue their journeys to other destinations on TAP’s network, strengthening the strategic importance of the routes.
TAP chief executive Luís Rodrigues has previously identified Africa and Brazil as two of the carrier’s strongest potential areas for future growth.
That outlook is likely to make the airline’s African network a significant consideration for any prospective strategic investor seeking to expand TAP’s international reach.
What the Bidders Are Offering
Although the Portuguese government is selling only a minority stake, the successful bidder is expected to become TAP’s strategic partner and have substantial influence over the airline’s future direction.
Portugal’s privatisation framework makes clear that the government will assess more than the financial value of the bids. The prospective investor’s financial capacity, industrial plan and commitment to preserving Portugal’s air connectivity are also key considerations.
The government has also reserved up to 5 per cent of TAP’s shares for employees. Any shares not acquired by workers could potentially be purchased by the strategic investor, allowing its stake to rise to as much as 49.9 per cent.
The Portuguese state would initially retain at least 50.1 per cent of the airline, although authorities have left open the possibility of selling additional shares at a later stage.
Air France-KLM has said its proposal covers TAP’s passenger, cargo, maintenance and loyalty businesses. The French-Dutch group’s bid is backed by Delta Air Lines, a major commercial partner.
Lufthansa, meanwhile, has positioned itself as an industrial partner capable of supporting TAP’s long-term development.
The German aviation group already has extensive interests across the European airline industry, including Swiss, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and ITA Airways.
Alliance Battle Adds Another Dimension
The ownership contest could also influence TAP’s future within the global airline-alliance system.
TAP is currently a member of Star Alliance, where it operates alongside Lufthansa. A Lufthansa investment would therefore place TAP under the influence of a group that already shares its alliance structure.
Air France-KLM, on the other hand, is a member of SkyTeam, Star Alliance’s rival.
Should Air France-KLM ultimately win the contest, questions could emerge over whether TAP would remain in Star Alliance or eventually move closer to the SkyTeam network.
No decision to change TAP’s alliance membership has been announced, and a change cannot be assumed simply because a new shareholder is brought into the airline.
However, any future shift could matter to African travellers, potentially affecting connecting airports, codeshare arrangements, frequent-flyer benefits and the destinations accessible through a single booking.
TAP's Troubled Ownership History
The latest sale process is the newest chapter in a turbulent ownership history for TAP.
Portugal partially privatised the airline in 2015 but later reversed course and restored state control.
The government increased its ownership during the COVID-19 pandemic after travel restrictions plunged the global aviation industry into crisis and pushed TAP into severe financial difficulties.
The carrier subsequently received about €3.2 billion in state support and underwent a restructuring programme approved by the European Commission.
The restructuring included cost reductions, changes to the airline’s fleet and job cuts as TAP sought to restore its financial position.
With the carrier subsequently returning to profitability, Portugal revived plans to sell a strategic stake in 2025.
The government is seeking an established airline group capable of providing capital, operational expertise and access to a wider international network.
TAP’s strategic value is also linked to its position at Lisbon Airport, where congestion and limited take-off and landing slots make access to the Portuguese market particularly valuable.
What African Travellers Should Watch
For African passengers, one of the biggest questions is whether the eventual investor will maintain TAP’s existing African routes and frequencies or seek to reshape the network.
Neither Air France-KLM nor Lufthansa has publicly disclosed detailed commitments covering all 14 African destinations.
Key issues will include whether the successful bidder guarantees existing services, introduces additional routes or seeks to channel more passengers through its own European hubs in cities such as Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Munich or Brussels.
Smaller African markets could be particularly sensitive to any restructuring of TAP’s network.
Routes to countries such as Guinea-Bissau and São Tomé and Príncipe may not generate passenger volumes comparable with major European or Brazilian destinations, but they carry considerable strategic importance because of the limited number of direct air links connecting those markets to Europe.
For businesses, governments and families that depend on TAP, the preservation of those connections could therefore be as important as the financial terms of the sale.
Portugal now faces the task of determining which of the two offers provides the strongest combination of financial value, connectivity and long-term investment.
Until a preferred bidder is selected, the contest remains open — and with it, the future direction of one of Europe's most important air networks linking Africa to the continent.