Ogundele predicts refinery shares could hit N5,000 before 2030, urges government to back new generation of industrialists

The planned N2.15 trillion Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has been described as an opportunity to deepen public participation in Nigeria’s industrial transformation, with the Group Managing Director of Sujimoto, Dr. Sijibomi Ogundele, calling for the emergence of at least 10 industrial champions on the scale of Aliko Dangote.

Ogundele, who praised the industrial achievements of Africa’s foremost business leaders, said Nigeria’s economic future depended on developing entrepreneurs capable of transforming capital into factories, technology, exports, supply chains and millions of productive jobs.

He also projected strong prospects for the Dangote refinery shares, currently being offered at N525 each, saying the price could rise to N5,000 before 2030.

Describing Dangote as Africa’s “beast of industry”, Ogundele said the businessman’s journey should serve as a source of inspiration for a new generation of Nigerian industrialists.

“My profound congratulations to Africa’s first son, a true beast of industry and a gift to our generation,” Ogundele said.

According to him, the refinery’s IPO represents more than a capital-raising exercise because it could provide ordinary Nigerians with an opportunity to become shareholders in one of the country’s most significant industrial assets.

“Whether you are a gate man, janitor, driver, young graduate, general manager or billionaire, Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals is offering 4.1 billion shares at N525 each, targeting about N2.15 trillion,” he said.

He added that with a minimum subscription of 10 shares, prospective investors could participate with as little as N5,250.

Beyond one refinery

For Ogundele, however, the significance of the Dangote project extends beyond the refinery itself. He argued that Dangote’s greatest contribution could ultimately be the scale of possibility his industrial journey has created for Africans.

Recalling his visit to the Dangote Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki about five years ago, Ogundele said he was struck not merely by the enormous size of the facility but by the vision, persistence and determination required to bring such a project to life.

He explained that his description of Dangote as a “beast” was not a reference to wealth or financial strength alone, but to “vision, audacity, and scale.”

According to him, the refinery demonstrated what could be achieved when an ambitious idea was pursued relentlessly despite complex challenges.

He likened the industrial project to a “huge Rubik’s Cube”, underscoring the complexity involved in bringing together infrastructure, financing, engineering, logistics, technology and supply chains on such a massive scale.

Ogundele said Nigeria should seek to replicate that ambition across several strategic sectors rather than rely on a handful of successful businesses.

“Our nation needs a Dangote of steel in Kaduna, a Dangote of pharmaceuticals in Anambra, a Dangote of agriculture in Niger, a Dangote of technology in Lagos, a Dangote of manufacturing in Aba and Nnewi, and a Dangote of housing and infrastructure in every geopolitical zone, and that’s Sujimoto,” he said.

‘Nigeria needs 10 more Dangotes’

He stressed that the call for 10 more Dangotes was not an appeal for the creation of more billionaires, but for a deliberate expansion of Nigeria’s productive capacity.

“Ten Dangotes therefore cannot mean ten more names on a billionaire list. Nigeria already has wealthy people. What we need are industrialists who convert capital into factories, technology, exports, supply chains, apprenticeships, taxes and millions of productive jobs,” he said.

Ogundele urged the Federal Government to identify proven Nigerian entrepreneurs operating in strategic sectors and support them with patient capital, critical infrastructure and predictable economic policies.

Such support, he argued, should be tied to measurable outcomes, including employment generation, increased exports, technology transfer, development of Nigerian suppliers and greater local value addition.

He maintained that Nigeria’s longstanding dependence on exporting raw materials while importing finished products had deprived the country of enormous economic value.

“Our old economic habit has cost Africa dearly. We grow the yam, send it abroad to be pounded, then start looking for scarce dollars to buy our own pounded yam back.

“We pump crude and import fuel. We export raw materials and import finished prosperity, leaving the promise of abundance dissolving into a searing mirage in the psyche of every Nigerian. We owned the resource and surrendered the value addition.”

From refining to wider industrial ambition

Ogundele said Dangote’s expanding industrial ambitions further demonstrated why Nigeria needed to think beyond individual projects and develop an ecosystem of globally competitive companies.

He pointed to Dangote’s plans around the refinery and petrochemical value chain, including a targeted refining capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day, deeper petrochemical integration and a proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Kenya.

If both ambitions are delivered, he said, the combined refining footprint would approach 2.1 million barrels per day.

Against this backdrop, Ogundele said Dangote should be viewed not merely as a successful African businessman but in the broader tradition of global industrial empire-builders such as Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller, Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani.

He nevertheless warned that Nigerian entrepreneurs could not be expected to compete at a global level without corresponding improvements in the country’s business environment.

“You cannot tie an entrepreneur’s legs together and then complain that he cannot run like Usain Bolt,” he said.

A challenge to young entrepreneurs

Ogundele also used the occasion to encourage young Nigerians to pursue ambitious goals regardless of their backgrounds or access to powerful networks.

He urged the next generation not to regard the absence of privileged connections as a permanent barrier to success.

“The absence of a powerful uncle should never become the presence of a permanent excuse,” he said.

Ultimately, he said, the success of the Dangote refinery IPO should not be measured solely by the amount of money raised or the performance of its shares.

Rather, its deeper value should be seen in the productive capacity, industries, jobs and new generation of entrepreneurs that the project inspires.

“That is the greater dividend: a Nigeria where one Dangote becomes ten,” Ogundele said.