Domestic supply from the refinery rose 39% in August, while national PMS consumption declined by 14%
Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol declined significantly in August as the Dangote Refinery increased its supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to the domestic market, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The refinery supplied an average of 35.9 million litres of petrol per day to the Nigerian market during the month, representing a 39 per cent increase from the 25.8 million litres it supplied daily in July.
At the same time, daily petrol imports fell by 26 per cent, declining from 19.7 million litres in July to 14.6 million litres in August.
The figures are contained in NMDPRA’s August factsheet released on Thursday and provide an indication of the growing contribution of domestic refining to Nigeria’s petrol supply.
The increase in petrol production and supply from the Dangote refinery coincided with a rise in the volume of crude received by the facility. NMDPRA data showed that the refinery’s crude receipt increased by 17 per cent, from 0.585 million barrels per day in July to 0.683 million barrels per day in August.
The development comes against the backdrop of a decline in overall domestic petrol consumption.
According to the regulator, Nigeria’s PMS consumption dropped by 14 per cent, from 48.3 million litres per day in July to 41.5 million litres per day in August.
The combination of increased domestic supply from the Dangote refinery and lower national consumption meant that imported petrol accounted for a smaller share of the market during the month.
Domestic refining gains ground
The August figures highlight the changing structure of Nigeria’s petrol supply chain as the Dangote refinery continues to increase its contribution to the domestic market.
With the refinery supplying 35.9 million litres per day and imports averaging 14.6 million litres daily, the two sources together accounted for approximately 50.5 million litres per day during the period, although the figures represent receipts and imports reported by NMDPRA rather than a direct measure of total end-user consumption.
The refinery’s higher crude intake also points to increased feedstock availability for its operations during the month.
The rise in crude receipt from 0.585 million barrels per day to 0.683 million barrels per day represents an additional 98,000 barrels daily compared with July.
Imports continue to decline
The 26 per cent fall in petrol imports marks a notable change from Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on overseas supplies to meet domestic fuel demand.
For years, the country depended heavily on imported refined petroleum products because of inadequate domestic refining capacity. The gradual expansion of local refining capacity has begun to alter that pattern.
The August figures suggest that higher domestic refinery output is increasingly providing an alternative source of petrol supply, even as overall demand remains a major determinant of import requirements.
The decline in consumption also contributed to the reduction in the volume of petrol required from foreign suppliers.
Consumption falls
While domestic refinery supply increased, NMDPRA reported a substantial reduction in PMS consumption during the same period.
Daily consumption fell from 48.3 million litres in July to 41.5 million litres in August, a decline of 6.8 million litres per day.
The development means that the Nigerian market required less petrol in August than it did the previous month, creating additional room for increased domestic supply to displace imported products.
The figures also underscore the importance of examining both supply and demand when assessing changes in Nigeria’s fuel import requirements.
Changing dynamics in Nigeria’s fuel market
The latest data point to an evolving downstream petroleum market in which domestic refining, rather than imports alone, is playing an increasingly prominent role in meeting Nigeria’s petrol requirements.
For the Dangote refinery, the increase in crude receipts and petrol supplied to the domestic market represents continued expansion in its role within the country’s petroleum value chain.
For the wider market, the combination of rising refinery supply, falling imports and lower PMS consumption could have implications for how Nigeria manages its refined petroleum product requirements.
The August figures therefore offer another snapshot of the transition underway in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, as domestic refining capacity expands and the country’s traditional dependence on imported petrol continues to change.