The North American box office is heading into what could become one of its strongest late-September weekends in years, with four major releases arriving nationwide and competing for audiences across several demographics.
The weekend could produce the best late-September performance since 2018, when films collectively generated $106.4 million, despite the absence of a single new release expected to cross the $30 million mark.
From a pure box-office perspective, the weekend offers an unusually broad mix. Disney and Marvel Studios are bringing back Avengers: Endgame: Encore for superhero fans, while A24 is targeting Gen-Z audiences and Robert Pattinson followers with Primetime. Paramount is releasing Brad Pitt-led survival drama Heart of the Beast, aimed at adult audiences, while Universal and DreamWorks Animation are courting families with the animated adventure Forgotten Island.
Going into the weekend, the early expectation was that Avengers: Endgame: Encore and the second weekend of Sony/Constantin’s Resident Evil would battle for the top spot.
Encore was initially projected to open between $25 million and $30 million, while Resident Evil was tracking toward $21 million-$24 million in its second frame.
However, the arrival of Primetime has introduced another potential contender.
Pattinson gives ‘Primetime’ an unexpected boost
Pattinson is coming off a high-profile year that has kept him firmly in the spotlight, and A24 is hoping that momentum will translate into a strong opening for Primetime.
The film, which explores the case involving To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen and a case that goes awry, is targeting an opening between $12 million and $16 million. However, industry expectations suggest the $15 million net production could potentially reach $20 million in its North American debut.
“It could be a three way fight for No. 1,” one distribution source said.
Primetime is opening at 2,814 locations, with previews beginning at 4 p.m. Thursday. Sources indicated that preview earnings were tracking between $2 million and $3 million, putting the film ahead of several recent Pattinson-led releases.
For comparison, The Drama generated $1.7 million in previews before opening to $14.3 million, while Mickey 17 recorded approximately $2.5 million in previews before posting a $19 million opening.
The film is also benefiting from strong early critical reaction, with Rotten Tomatoes reporting an 86% Certified Fresh score and an 85% critics score.
Those numbers could help A24 attract audiences beyond Pattinson's established fan base.
‘Endgame: Encore’ banks on nostalgia and extra footage
Disney and Marvel Studios are counting on the enduring popularity of Avengers: Endgame to drive audiences back to cinemas.
The re-release includes four additional minutes from the Russo Brothers’ upcoming Avengers: Doomsday, giving fans another incentive to see the film on the big screen.
Encore began previews at 2 p.m. Thursday, with sources indicating that its preview haul could exceed the $3.4 million generated by the re-release of Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith. That Star Wars re-release ultimately opened to $25.4 million.
Industry sources also said presales for Endgame: Encore were running ahead of those for Revenge of the Sith.
Still, the performance of a re-release can be difficult to predict because such films can be heavily front-loaded, with devoted fans turning out immediately before attendance drops.
The film is booked in approximately 3,000 theatres, including 1,300 premium large-format screens featuring Disney and Marvel’s new Infinity Vision certification, as well as 390 IMAX locations.
However, Encore will share IMAX and premium large-format screens with Resident Evil, adding another factor to the weekend's box-office competition.
Internationally, Endgame: Encore is expected to generate about $25 million, potentially giving it a worldwide opening in the region of $50 million.
The re-release also carries a larger historical storyline for Disney. James Cameron’s Avatar remains the highest-grossing film worldwide at approximately $2.92 billion, while Avengers: Endgame sits second at about $2.799 billion. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is listed third at approximately $2.5 billion.
That leaves a roughly $124 million gap between Avatar and Endgame.
Unlike the one-week theatrical run given to Revenge of the Sith, Endgame: Encore has a longer runway during the autumn box-office calendar, potentially giving Disney more time to assess whether the Marvel blockbuster can close the gap before Avengers: Doomsday arrives on December 18.
Brad Pitt’s ‘Heart of the Beast’ targets adults
Paramount is entering the weekend with Heart of the Beast, a David Ayer-directed survival drama starring Brad Pitt.
The film has received a positive response from critics, with Rotten Tomatoes showing an 89% Certified Fresh rating. Deadline chief critic Pete Hammond has also praised the movie, while early audience reactions have highlighted its emotional impact.
Tracking currently places the film between $17 million and $20 million from approximately 3,400 theatres.
Previews began at 2 p.m. Thursday, with sources estimating that the film had generated around $1.8 million, including Monday mystery screenings.
That figure is slightly above the $1.5 million in previews recorded by Pitt’s 2019 science-fiction drama Ad Astra, which went on to open with $19 million domestically.
Heart of the Beast reportedly carries a net production cost of approximately $82 million before global marketing expenses. The film also arrives with two competing edits by Ayer and Pitt, with Ayer’s version ultimately being used for the theatrical release.
The movie is opening internationally in 63 markets this week, representing approximately 95% of its overseas footprint. Major territories include Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the United Kingdom.
International markets are expected to contribute around $15 million, potentially giving the film a worldwide opening of approximately $35 million.
The central story follows a Special Forces veteran and his combat dog as they struggle to survive after becoming stranded in the Alaskan wilderness.
The studio is hoping the survival premise, emotional elements and Pitt’s star power will bring older male and female moviegoers to cinemas.
‘Forgotten Island’ looks to families
The fourth major wide release, Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, is targeting families and younger audiences.
The animated film is expected to open between $13 million and $15 million from approximately 3,500 locations.
Late September has traditionally provided a launch window for family animation, with films such as Abominable, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs and The Wild Robot among movies that have occupied similar territory.
Directed by Joel Crawford and Januel P. Mercado, the filmmakers behind Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Forgotten Island follows two best friends who become stranded on the mystical world of Nakali. Their potential escape comes with an unusual price: they may have to sacrifice their shared lifetime of memories.
Domestic previews began at 2 p.m. Thursday and are estimated at between $800,000 and $1 million.
The film is also receiving a staggered international release. It earned approximately $1.5 million last weekend from Mexico, Australia and New Zealand.
Another 31 international markets are joining the rollout this weekend, bringing the film's total to 34 territories. Those markets are expected to contribute approximately $10 million.
A crowded weekend with no clear runaway
With four new wide releases and Resident Evil entering its second weekend, the late-September box office is unusually competitive.
Each major title is targeting a different audience: Marvel fans have Endgame: Encore, younger viewers and Pattinson followers have Primetime, adults are being courted by Heart of the Beast, and families have Forgotten Island.
The result could be a particularly competitive frame in which relatively modest openings across several films combine to produce a strong overall weekend.
The major question now is whether Endgame: Encore can convert its strong fan-driven presales and previews into sustained weekend business, or whether Primetime can exceed expectations and turn the weekend into the three-way contest predicted by one distribution source.
With no film currently expected to break the $30 million opening barrier, the overall health of the marketplace could ultimately be more significant than the race for first place.