Nigeria’s growing refining capacity is beginning to reshape the country’s petroleum trade, with refined petroleum product exports rising sharply in the second quarter of 2026.
Refined petroleum product exports reached $3.94 billion in Q2 2026, representing a 148 per cent increase from the $1.59 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
The figure also marked a 66.2 per cent increase from the $2.37 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2026, pointing to a stronger export performance between April and June.
The figures are contained in an analysis of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments Highlights for the first and second quarters of 2026. The CBN did not provide comparable refined petroleum product export data in its Q1 2025 report.
The latest performance adds to evidence that Nigeria’s petroleum export profile is gradually changing, as increased domestic refining capacity allows the country to process more crude locally and ship refined products to international markets.
Export earnings climb
Nigeria’s refined petroleum exports increased by $2.35 billion year-on-year in Q2 2026, while the quarter-on-quarter increase stood at $1.57 billion.
The rise means refined petroleum products accounted for a growing share of the country’s external trade earnings during the quarter, in contrast with Nigeria’s longstanding dependence on crude oil exports.
The development comes amid increased activity in the domestic refining industry, particularly at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has emerged as the country’s largest refining facility.
The Central Bank had previously noted that Nigeria was gradually moving from a net importer of refined petroleum products towards becoming a net exporter. Its Q3 2025 Balance of Payments data showed refined petroleum product exports rising to $2.29 billion from $1.59 billion in Q2 2025, while refined product imports fell to $1.65 billion.
Dangote drives refining expansion
The stronger export performance coincided with a significant expansion in Nigeria’s refining activity.
Oil refining recorded 43.94 per cent year-on-year growth in Q2 2026, according to the data cited in the analysis, making it the strongest quarterly expansion recorded during the period under review.
The Dangote refinery has been central to the increase in domestic processing. The facility began operations in January 2024, and its contribution has since expanded Nigeria’s ability to supply petroleum products locally and to international markets.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said seaborne petroleum product shipments from Nigeria averaged 561,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Of that volume, about 350,000 barrels per day were exported, compared with an annual average of just 46,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The EIA linked the growth in shipments to the commissioning of the Dangote refinery and subsequent increases in its operations. It said completion of maintenance and expansion work in February 2026 increased the refinery’s crude distillation capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day.
Crude supply to local refineries rises
The expansion in refining activity has also been reflected in crude oil supplies to domestic refiners.
Domestic crude oil and condensate supply to local refineries reached 53.7 million barrels in Q2 2026, with the Dangote refinery accounting for the overwhelming proportion of crude supplied to domestic refiners.
The refinery required about 63 million barrels during the quarter, while producers offered 68.1 million barrels. It ultimately accepted 52.6 million barrels, representing about 78 per cent of the crude volume offered.
The figures highlight both the scale of the refinery’s crude requirements and the growing importance of domestic crude supply to Nigeria’s refining ambitions.
Nigeria sends more refined products abroad
The shift is also becoming visible in Nigeria’s trade relationships.
Refined petroleum products have increasingly featured in Nigeria’s exports to major international markets, including Europe and other African countries.
According to the EIA, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026, up from 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 15,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Exports to other African markets also increased, reaching nearly 120,000 barrels per day during the quarter, compared with 89,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Nigeria also shipped about 110,000 barrels per day to Asia and Oceania, underlining the widening market for products refined in the country.
The expansion occurred against the backdrop of disruptions to international petroleum flows during the second quarter. The EIA said disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tightened global refined-product markets and prompted buyers to seek alternative sources of supply.
Import bill falls sharply
At home, the increase in refining activity has coincided with a dramatic reduction in Nigeria’s petroleum product import bill.
Nigeria’s petrol import bill fell to N87.40 billion in Q1 2026, from N2.27 trillion in Q1 2025.
The decline points to a substantial reduction in the country’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products as domestic refining capacity increases.
The trend is consistent with the CBN’s earlier observation that improving domestic refining capacity was contributing to lower petroleum product imports. In its Q2 2025 economic report, the apex bank said petroleum product imports fell to $2.58 billion from $3.57 billion, partly because improved domestic refining capacity reduced reliance on imported products.
A changing petroleum trade profile
The latest export figures point to a potentially important shift in Nigeria’s petroleum economy.
For decades, the country’s petroleum export earnings have been dominated by crude oil, while a significant portion of domestic fuel consumption has depended on imported refined products.
The rapid increase in refined product exports, alongside falling imports, suggests that the balance is changing as new and expanded refineries increase domestic processing.
The EIA described the growth in Nigeria’s petroleum product shipments as a seven-fold increase since 2023, with the Dangote refinery playing a central role in the expansion.
For Nigeria, the development could mean that a greater proportion of the value generated from its crude oil resources is captured through domestic processing rather than through the export of crude alone.
The scale and durability of the shift, however, will depend on sustained refinery operations, reliable crude supply, domestic fuel demand, international product prices and Nigeria’s ability to maintain access to export markets.