The decision, expected at the group’s meeting on Sunday, comes at a delicate point for OPEC+ as members prepare to determine their next steps on production while the conflict continues to constrain oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
The disruption has complicated the group’s traditional role in managing the global oil market. With crude shipments through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints affected by the conflict, OPEC+ has had less ability than usual to influence prices and defend or expand market share through changes in its production levels.
Unlike previous periods when OPEC+ supply adjustments had a pronounced effect on oil prices, the group’s recent production decisions have had a more limited impact on the market.
Output increases face a likely pause
The expected October pause follows the group’s decision in August to approve a further increase in production for September.
That move completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels-per-day production cut that OPEC+ members had agreed in 2023 as part of efforts to support the oil market.
Despite the scheduled increases, however, actual production by OPEC+ remains significantly below the group’s stated targets.
The ongoing war has disrupted production and exports among members, meaning that some of the additional supply authorised by the group has not translated into equivalent volumes reaching the global market.
OPEC+ comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allied producers, including Russia. The broader alliance consists of 21 countries and remains one of the world's most influential groupings of oil-producing nations.
Another layer of cuts remains
The production policy is also complicated by another layer of supply restrictions covering most members of the 21-country alliance.
Those cuts are currently scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026, meaning the group still has a substantial amount of production capacity that could potentially be restored to the market.
Before deciding how and when to unwind those restrictions, however, OPEC+ must first establish new production baselines for its members.
The baselines are important because they determine how much crude each country is permitted to produce under the group’s quota system.
The alliance is expected to assess the production capacity of individual members before setting the baselines that will underpin its 2027 quotas.
That assessment and the subsequent debate over new production targets are expected to take place later in 2026.
Hormuz disruption complicates OPEC+ strategy
The timing of the meeting is particularly significant because of the continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global oil and gas shipments normally passes.
The conflict has altered the dynamics of the oil market, reducing the immediate influence that OPEC+ production decisions might otherwise have.
Under normal circumstances, an increase or reduction in OPEC+ output can influence the balance between supply and demand and, in turn, affect crude prices.
But with geopolitical risks and physical supply disruptions dominating the market, changes in official OPEC+ production targets may have a weaker relationship with the amount of oil actually reaching consumers.
This creates a difficult balancing act for the group.
An aggressive return of production could increase supply when geopolitical risks eventually ease, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, maintaining tighter restrictions could limit the ability of producers to regain market share if competing suppliers increase their exports.
Fourth-quarter increases likely to be deferred
Against that backdrop, OPEC+ is increasingly expected to take a cautious approach during the final quarter of the year.
Sources previously told Reuters that the group is likely to pause further production increases in the fourth quarter while it prepares for the more complicated discussions over future production baselines.
The pause would give members additional time to assess market conditions, monitor the impact of the conflict on actual supply flows and work towards a framework for determining production capacity ahead of 2027.
For oil-consuming economies, the decision will be closely watched because OPEC+ policy remains an important indicator of the potential direction of global crude supply.
For producers, meanwhile, the coming months could determine how quickly the remaining cuts are unwound and how production quotas are allocated once the current framework expires.
The immediate focus, however, is likely to remain on maintaining the existing policy for October as the alliance navigates an oil market increasingly shaped not only by production decisions, but also by war, shipping disruptions and uncertainty over global supply routes.