Economist and financial analyst Bismarck Rewane has urged Nigerians to consider investing in the proposed Dangote Refinery Initial Public Offering (IPO), arguing that buying shares could offer greater long-term financial benefits than selling their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) for immediate cash.
Rewane made the remarks while speaking on Channels Television’s Business Morning on Friday, where he said the planned share offering could provide millions of Nigerians, especially low-income earners, with an opportunity to build wealth through ownership of a major Nigerian company.
According to him, the decision to invest a relatively small amount in the refinery could potentially generate substantial returns over time, unlike the one-off financial gain from selling a PVC.
“You are better off with your N5,000 share than selling your PVC for N10,000 or N15,000 and consuming it,” Rewane said.
He argued that the proposed investment should be viewed from a long-term perspective, noting that the value of an investment could rise considerably as the refinery expands its operations and generates revenue.
“This is an investment which will translate itself, in a matter of 2 to 3 years, to something as much as almost, I think, almost 300,000 naira. The numbers will be out, and you can see in the prospectus,” he said.
Rewane said the projected returns and financial performance of the refinery would be outlined in the company’s prospectus, which investors would be able to use in assessing the opportunity.
Revenue potential
The economist also drew attention to the scale of the refinery’s revenue-generating capacity, arguing that its financial performance could have significant implications for both investors and the Nigerian economy.
“So the projections are very clear. Another thing we have to know is that the amount of revenue generated as reported by the Dangote refinery for the half-year, if you analyse it, is far in excess of the Nigerian budget,” he said.
He added that the refinery’s financial profile demonstrated the scale of the business and the wider Dangote Group.
“Therefore, you have a revenue and a revenue profile of a company whose revenue is far in excess of the Nigerian budget for the Nigerian state, and that is only one of the entities that are part of the Dangote Group.”
Rewane said the proposed IPO could also represent a significant moment for Nigeria’s capital market if it succeeds in bringing millions of new retail investors into the market.
Targeting 10 million investors
According to the economist, the ambition to attract about 10 million investors would be a major milestone, particularly in a country where participation in formal investment opportunities remains relatively limited.
“The reality is that targeting 10 million investors is also a milestone,” Rewane said.
He explained that such widespread participation would give the refinery an unusually large shareholder base and potentially make the IPO one of the most significant examples of mass retail investment in Nigeria.
“If you can get 10 million shareholders to participate in the IPO, the Dangote Refinery will have the largest number of shareholders in the world,” he said.
Beyond the sheer number of investors, Rewane said the IPO could help change Nigerians’ attitudes towards saving and wealth creation by encouraging them to put money into productive assets rather than spending it immediately.
Investment versus gambling
The economist also used the proposed IPO to draw a distinction between investing in businesses and putting money into gambling, lotteries and betting.
He said genuine investment involves making financial decisions based on identifiable business fundamentals and projections, whereas gambling largely depends on uncertain outcomes.
“The difference between a gambling act, a lottery act and an investment is that in one case, you are investing based on known parameters; in the other one, you are actually just gambling and taking a chance,” Rewane said.
He described broad participation in the refinery’s share offering as a form of economic democratisation, arguing that ordinary Nigerians could become direct participants in the growth of one of the country’s most prominent industrial ventures.
Potential regional hub
Rewane further suggested that the refinery could evolve beyond its domestic role and become a major petroleum refining and marketing hub for West and Central Africa.
Such an expansion, he argued, could create multiple benefits, including returns for shareholders, increased corporate activity and additional tax revenues for government.
“So it is a compelling investment opportunity which puts revenue and profits and dividends into the pockets of consumers and investors, puts a lot of tax revenue in the pockets of the government,” he said.
The economist’s comments come amid growing interest in the proposed Dangote Refinery IPO and its potential to broaden public participation in the ownership of major Nigerian businesses.
If the offering succeeds in attracting millions of retail investors, it could also deepen Nigeria’s capital market by bringing first-time investors into the formal investment system and encouraging a shift from short-term consumption towards long-term wealth creation.