Nigeria’s crude oil production was estimated to have generated a gross value of N52.12tn between January and September 2026, as rising international oil prices boosted the value of output to approximately $39.15bn during the nine-month period.
Calculations based on monthly production averages, prevailing Bonny Light crude oil prices and an exchange rate of N1,331 to the dollar put the country’s total crude oil output at 402.86 million barrels, equivalent to approximately 403 million barrels.
The estimates, derived from data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, reflect the value of crude oil produced by all operators in the country, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, international oil companies and indigenous producers.
However, the amount does not represent revenue actually received by the Federal Government, as it excludes production costs, royalties, taxes, domestic consumption, crude allocations, export volumes and other deductions.
The estimated value was calculated by multiplying each month’s crude oil production volume by the corresponding average price of Bonny Light, Nigeria’s crude oil benchmark, before converting the dollar value into naira.
Monthly output and value fluctuate
Production figures showed that Nigeria produced 45.26 million barrels in January, 36.68 million barrels in February and 42.78 million barrels in March.
Output subsequently increased to 44.70 million barrels in April before reaching 47.43 million barrels in May, the highest monthly volume recorded during the period.
Production stood at 46.80 million barrels in June and 46.81 million barrels in July, while August recorded 46.50 million barrels. September's output was estimated at 45.90 million barrels.
The monthly figures brought cumulative production to 402.86 million barrels over the nine months.
The estimated value of output varied considerably, reflecting changes in international crude prices as well as fluctuations in monthly production volumes.
January's production was valued at approximately $3.08bn, based on an average Bonny Light price of $68.05 per barrel. February's output was worth about $2.65bn at $72.33 per barrel, making it the lowest monthly value recorded during the period.
In March, the estimated value rose to $4.54bn as the average crude price climbed to $106.09 per barrel.
The upward movement continued in April, when output was valued at approximately $5.66bn at an average price of $126.71 per barrel. This was the highest monthly value recorded during the nine-month period.
May's output was estimated at $5.34bn, based on an average price of $112.63 per barrel, while June's production was valued at $4.13bn following a decline in the benchmark price to $88.24.
In July, the estimated value stood at $3.97bn, with Bonny Light averaging $84.81 per barrel. The figure increased to $4.40bn in August as the price recovered to $94.64, before rising to $5.38bn in September when the benchmark crude traded at an average of $117.12 per barrel.
The combined monthly estimates produced a total gross output value of approximately $39.15bn, equivalent to about N52.12tn at the specified exchange rate.
Naira value rises amid oil market volatility
At the exchange rate of N1,331 to the dollar, the estimated monthly value of crude oil production translated to N4.10tn in January, N3.53tn in February and N6.04tn in March.
The value increased to N7.54tn in April before easing to N7.11tn in May and N5.50tn in June.
July's output was valued at approximately N5.28tn, while August recorded N5.86tn. September's production was estimated at N7.16tn.
April therefore recorded the highest monthly gross value of crude oil output, while February recorded the lowest, reflecting the combined influence of production volumes and international oil prices.
The figures highlight how movements in the global oil market can significantly affect the estimated value of Nigeria's crude production, even when monthly output remains within a relatively narrow range.
US-Iran tensions lift crude prices
The increase in crude oil prices during the period coincided with heightened geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran.
Bonny Light averaged $68.05 per barrel in January before rising to $72.33 in February. Following the escalation of the US-Iran crisis, which began on February 28, prices climbed to $106.09 in March and peaked at $126.71 in April.
The benchmark subsequently eased to $112.63 in May and $88.24 in June following a ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Washington.
Prices declined further to $84.81 in July before recovering to $94.64 in August and $117.12 in September as the ceasefire agreement collapsed.
The price movements contributed to the substantial variation in the estimated monthly value of Nigeria's crude oil production, with the higher prices in April and September translating into stronger gross output valuations.
BrandIconImage reported that the rise in international crude prices had generated an estimated windfall in the value of Nigeria's oil output since the conflict began, lifting the figures above the assumptions underpinning the Federal Government's 2026 budget.
Output value exceeds budget price assumption
Nigeria's 2026 budget is based on an oil production benchmark of 1.8 million barrels per day, a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
The estimated monthly average production rates used in the nine-month calculation ranged from 1.31 million barrels per day in February to 1.56 million barrels per day in June, remaining below the budget's daily production benchmark throughout the period.
Nevertheless, the average Bonny Light prices recorded from March to September were substantially higher than the budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, increasing the estimated gross value of the crude produced.
The figures suggest that elevated international oil prices have provided a significant boost to the estimated value of Nigeria's crude oil output. However, the extent to which the price gains translate into additional government revenue will depend on actual production and export volumes, fiscal arrangements, operating costs and other deductions.
While the estimated N52.12tn provides an indication of the scale of crude oil production during the first nine months of 2026, it should not be interpreted as the amount available to finance government expenditure.
For Nigeria, the challenge remains converting the potential benefits of higher oil prices into actual public revenue while sustaining production, managing costs and accounting for the difference between the gross value of crude produced and the proceeds ultimately received.