Nigeria’s petrol supply struggled to keep pace with rising demand in September 2026, as daily imports fell by 30.1 per cent to 10.2 million litres, while reported consumption increased to 44.4 million litres.
Figures from the latest factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that combined daily petrol receipts from domestic sources and imports averaged 38.7 million litres during the month, leaving a deficit of 5.7 million litres against reported consumption.
The figures point to a widening supply challenge, as reduced imports coincided with declining domestic receipts, limiting the volume of petrol available to meet the country’s daily requirements.
Domestic supply weakens as demand rises
Domestic petrol receipts fell by 20.6 per cent, from 35.9 million litres per day in August to 28.5 million litres in September. Over the same period, daily imports declined from 14.6 million litres to 10.2 million litres.
The decline in supply occurred despite a 7 per cent increase in petrol consumption, which rose from 41.5 million litres per day in August to 44.4 million litres in September.
Consequently, combined receipts covered approximately 87.2 per cent of reported daily consumption, leaving the market with a shortfall that could not be met by the recorded supply volumes.
Petrol stock cover, however, improved slightly from 22.9 days in August to 23.9 days in September. Despite the increase, the figure remained below the NMDPRA’s 30-day benchmark, indicating that available stocks had yet to reach the regulator’s target.
The September data suggest that lower import volumes alone did not translate into a more balanced supply position, particularly as domestic receipts also weakened and consumption continued to rise.
Petrol imports fluctuate sharply in 2026
The regulator’s figures showed considerable fluctuations in Nigeria’s daily petrol imports between January and September, reflecting significant changes in supply volumes throughout the year.
Imports stood at 24.8 million litres per day in January before plunging to 3.0 million litres in February. The volume recovered to 5.9 million litres in March, fell to 3.7 million litres in April and returned to 5.9 million litres in May.
A stronger rebound followed in June, when daily imports climbed to 18.1 million litres, before peaking at 19.7 million litres in July. Import volumes subsequently declined, reaching 10.2 million litres per day in September, 48.2 per cent below July’s peak.
Domestic petrol receipts followed a different trajectory. Daily volumes rose from 40.1 million litres in January to a peak of 41.5 million litres in May before dropping to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July.
Although domestic receipts recovered in August, the improvement was short-lived, with volumes falling again to 28.5 million litres per day in September.
The divergent movements in domestic receipts and imports highlight the challenges of maintaining consistent supply as demand changes, particularly when both sources fail to provide sufficient volumes to cover reported consumption.
Import costs remain a concern
The supply figures come against the backdrop of significant fluctuations in Nigeria’s petrol import expenditure.
Nairametrics previously reported that the country’s petrol import bill surged by 989.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N952.15 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with N87.40 billion in the first quarter.
During the same quarter, Nigeria’s oil refining sector recorded year-on-year growth of 43.94 per cent, according to an earlier report by the publication.
The figures underscore the contrast between growth in refining activity and the country’s continued reliance on imported petroleum products to supplement domestic supply.
The Dangote refinery’s crude oil distillation capacity also increased from 650,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day following maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026.
Despite the expansion, the September data showed that reported domestic petrol receipts remained insufficient to meet daily consumption, leaving imports as a continuing component of the country’s supply mix.
Achieving a more sustainable reduction in import dependence will require domestic refineries to maintain consistent output and ensure that adequate volumes reach the market, particularly as demand increases.
Historical import expenditure highlights exposure to exchange-rate pressures
Nigeria’s petrol import expenditure has also been affected by movements in the exchange rate.
Nairametrics earlier reported that the country’s petrol import bill declined to $10 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024.
However, import costs in naira rose sharply in 2024, increasing by 105.3 per cent to N15.42 trillion, the highest level on record. The increase was largely attributed to the 40.9 per cent depreciation of the naira, which raised the domestic-currency cost of imported petroleum products.
The latest supply figures therefore place renewed attention on the relationship between domestic refining, import requirements, foreign-exchange exposure and rising petrol consumption.
With daily demand reaching 44.4 million litres in September, the ability of domestic refiners and importers to maintain adequate and reliable supply will remain central to closing the gap between petrol receipts and consumption.