‘Star Wars: Rise Of Skywalker’ to Join $100 Million Losers Club as it Nears $1 Billion

Forbes - At this time two years ago, Star Wars: The Last Jedi pulled in a monster $71.6 million on its second weekend. More than most movies can expect even on opening weekend, that number brought the film’s grand domestic total to $368.2 million.
That second-weekend gross was many things for the Disney juggernaut. Massive. Remarkable. Impressive. Extraordinary.

Oh. And it was incredibly rare.

One of the most unusual feats a film can achieve at the box office is a $100 million drop between Weekend 1 and Weekend 2. And in late 2017, we saw The Last Jedi’s weekend-over-weekend revenue drop from $220 million to just $71.6 million, for a monumental difference of $128.4 million.
And now Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is also on the verge of joining the $100 Million Losers Club as we head into this weekend.

To achieve this incredible box office milestone is both a blessing and a curse. Ideally, a film looks to build on its hype and positive reception from opening weekend for a substantial second weekend revenue. Typically, the weekend-over-weekend drop will rest in the 30-35% range. But when a film loses $100 million, that drop is more significant. For The Last Jedi, that drop came in at a nasty 67.5%.

Then again, a film can only drop $100 million if that first weekend is incredibly lucrative. In order to join the club, a movie would have to pull in around $200 million during its first three days in theaters.
And that’s the case for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Last weekend, the film opened to $177.4 million.

Unfortunately, that was the lowest total of Disney’s Star Wars sequels. Which means its second-weekend total could very well fall below The Last Jedi’s second-weekend total of $71.6 million—which would relegate The Rise of Skywalker to the club in an unceremonious way.

Here are the current ten films that have joined the $100 Million Losers Club, which is largely dominated by Disney projects:

• Avengers: Endgame - $209.7 million drop
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $148.4 million drop
• Avengers: Infinity War - $142.9 million drop
• The Lion King - $115.2 million drop
• Avengers: Age of Ultron - $113.6 million drop
• Captain America: Civil War - $106.5 million drop
• The Avengers - $104.3 million drop
• Incredibles 2 - $102.4 million drop
• Jurassic World - $102.2 million drop
• Iron Man 3 - $101.6 million drop

While joining the club can sometimes become a badge of honor, it would be a bad thing in The Rise of Skywalker’s case.

By comparison, Avengers: Endgame’s weekend-over-weekend revenue dropped by a shocking $209.7 million between Weekend 1 and Weekend 2. But that’s only because the opening weekend revenue stood at a record-breaking $357.1 million. If anything, Endgame capitalized on its popular appeal and built on its domestic dominance.

The same cannot be said for The Rise of Skywalker if the film makes under $77.4 million this upcoming weekend. Let’s not forget that Star Wars: The Force Awakens failed to join the $100 Million Losers Club after dropping revenue from $248 million on opening weekend to $149.2 million on Weekend 2.

That mere 39.8% drop shows that The Force Awakens wasn’t going to experience a sharp drop in revenue and was poised for a record-breaking trip at the box office—and yeah, the film went on to become the highest-grossing domestic film of all time with $936.7 million.

The Force Awakens benefitted from positive reviews and the anticipation of a new Stars Wars film after a number of years. But The Rise of Skywalker has had poor critical reception, and the world has received several Star Wars projects over the past five years. Which means the film could see an incredibly disappointing 65% drop in revenue this upcoming weekend and fail to crack $70 million.

But this is the power of Disney. With all that said—with all the disappointment that could be coming this weekend for the Star Wars franchise—The Rise of Skywalker will still approach $1 billion worldwide by weekend’s end. Its domestic total should reach around $350 million, and its overseas total should continue to skyrocket past its current near-$300-million cume.
-Forbes

December 28, 2019