According to the report expectations for the shape of the
near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of
government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets. The overall picture
presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is
unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant, it
noted.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from
COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And
when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a
long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the
evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said Willie
Walsh, IATA’s Director-General.
The report further stated that the February update to the
long-term forecast includes the following highlights: In 2021, overall traveler
numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022,
94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025. In 2021, international traveler
numbers were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022,
82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025 respectfully.
“This is a slightly more optimistic near-term international
recovery scenario compared to November 2021, based on the progressive
relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets. This has seen
improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets,
strengthening the baseline for recovery. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue
to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any
signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.
Further more In 2021, domestic traveler numbers were 61% of
2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 93% in 2022, 103% in 2023, 111% in
2024 and 118% in 2025.
‘The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveler numbers
is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian
domestic markets have recovered, the same is not true for the other major
domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan and Australia.
“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers
are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more
governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no
long-term impact on the spread of a virus. And the economic and social hardship
caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing
number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving
a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel,” said Walsh.
Regional Variations
The report Noted that all markets or market sectors are
recovering at the same pace.
“In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there
are some concerns. Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia
and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is
showing no signs of relaxing its zero-COVID strategy. The resulting localized
lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even
as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal,” said Walsh.
Asia-Pacific: The slow removal of international travel
restrictions, and the likelihood of renewed domestic restrictions during COVID
outbreaks, mean that traffic to/from/within Asia Pacific will only reach 68% of
2019 levels in 2022, the weakest outcome of the main regions. 2019 levels
should be recovered in 2025 (109%) due to a slow recovery on international
traffic in the region.
Europe: In the next few years, the intra-Europe market is
expected to benefit from passenger preferences for short-haul travel as
confidence rebuilds. This will be facilitated by increasingly harmonized and
restriction-free movement within the EU. Total passenger numbers to/from/within
Europe are expected to reach 86% of 2019 values in 2022, before making a full
recovery in 2024 (105%).
North America: After a resilient 2021, traffic
to/from/within North America will continue to perform strongly in 2022 as the
US domestic market returns to pre-crisis trends, and with ongoing improvements
in international travel. In 2022, passenger numbers will reach 94% of 2019
levels, and full recovery is expected in 2023 (102%), ahead of other regions.
Latin America: Traffic to/from/within Latin America has been
relatively resilient during the pandemic and is forecast to see a strong 2022,
with limited travel restrictions and dynamic passenger flows within the region
and to/from North America. 2019 passenger numbers are forecast to be surpassed
in 2023 for Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%)
and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%).
Africa: Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat
weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and
the impact of the crisis on developing economies. Passenger numbers
to/from/within Africa will recover more gradually than in other regions,
reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025
(101%).
Middle East: With limited short-haul markets, the Middle
East focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs is expected to result in
slower recovery. Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected
to reach 81% of 2019 levels in 2022, 98% in 2024 and 105% in 2025.
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