This projection is largely attributed to a rising global population, inadequate investments in power grids, and slower-than-anticipated adoption of electric vehicles worldwide, according to Aurelien Hamelle, Director of Sustainability and Strategy.
Hamelle highlighted the energy access challenges faced by approximately 4.5 billion people in the "global south," noting that to alleviate energy poverty by 2050, current energy production would need to quadruple.
The annual report outlines three scenarios: current trends, a moderately ambitious "momentum" scenario, and a "rupture" scenario that aligns with the Paris Agreement.
TotalEnergies indicated that the world is on course to consume 90 million barrels of oil per day by 2050, with demand expected to peak after 2035 based on current trends.
In contrast, competitor BP anticipates that oil demand will peak next year, projecting consumption to be around 75 million barrels per day by 2050.
In TotalEnergies' momentum scenario, oil demand would peak just after 2030 and decline to 70 million barrels per day by 2050. The Paris-aligned scenario would necessitate that oil demand peaks before 2030, with consumption dropping to 44 million barrels per day by 2050.
NEW OIL AND GAS PROJECTS NEEDED
Hamelle supported the company's strategy to explore new oil and gas ventures, highlighting that current fields experience a 4% annual decline, necessitating investments to sustain production levels.
He stated, "We have an exploration portfolio that provides us with options for future projects, whether we choose to proceed with them or not."
He emphasized that the projects with finalized investment decisions are deemed essential, even amid a potential acceleration in climate initiatives.
The company advocated for the rapid implementation of cost-effective, established technologies, such as renewable energy sources and gas-fired power plants, to replace aging coal facilities.
Additionally, it suggested promoting light electric vehicles, liquefied petroleum gas for cooking in developing nations, and the installation of residential heat pumps.
The widespread adoption of technologies like carbon capture and storage, as well as hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles, is anticipated to occur in the 2030s, with advancements in e-fuels and hydrogen-based steel production expected by the 2040s.
Hamelle noted, "It is evident that the United States will spearhead the global energy transition, although China is also a significant factor in this acceleration."
He pointed out that as a domestic producer, the U.S. has the capacity to invest more heavily than Europe in electrifying and decarbonizing its energy infrastructure, as it avoids the additional costs associated with importing oil or gas.
In contrast, China and India continue to commission new coal-fired power plants, with approximately one-third of these expected to remain operational by 2050.