The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced that the Federal Government, along with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and eight other local refineries, is expected to need 770,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOPD) for processing during the first half of 2025 (January to June).
Furthermore, the government aims to achieve a production level exceeding two million barrels per day (bpd) and 62 million barrels monthly. The refineries involved include the 10,000 bpd OPAC refinery in Delta State, the 5,000 bpd Waltersmith Refinery in Imo State, the 2,500 bpd Duport Midstream in Edo State, and the 1,500 bpd Edo Refinery, also located in Edo State.
Additional significant refineries include the 11,000 bpd Aradel Refinery in Rivers State, the 60,000 bpd old Port Harcourt refinery in Rivers State, the 125,000 bpd Warri Refinery in Delta State, and the 110,000 bpd Kaduna Refinery in Kaduna State.
The NUPRC shared this information while presenting its crude oil production forecast for the first half of 2025, along with the refining needs for operational refineries. This initiative is part of the Commission’s strategy to enhance the effective utilization of the country’s refineries and ensure a steady supply of crude oil, as stipulated in Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
According to the NUPRC, the required 770,500 bpd of crude represents roughly 37% of the anticipated average daily production of 2,066,940 bpd for the first half of 2025. The Commission emphasized that this target will be achieved through the Project One Million Barrels initiative, which was launched in October 2024 and has significantly boosted the nation’s crude production capacity for both domestic consumption and export.
The Commission remarked: “The forecasted daily crude requirement of 770,500 bpd represents about 37% of the projected first-half 2025 average daily production of 2,066,940 bpd. With the launch of Project 1 Million Barrels, NUPRC is leveraging upstream operators to meet the target of 2.5 million bpd in the short term.”
“This initiative is in line with Nigeria’s commitment to enhancing its domestic refining capacity and ensuring the long-term sustainability of its oil industry. In the first half of 2025, we expect increased collaboration between local refineries and producing companies, driving a more self-sufficient petroleum industry in Nigeria.”
The crude oil needed by these refineries will be sourced from International Oil Companies (IOCs) and independent producers, including Shell, Chevron, and Seplat Energy. The Commission specified the crude oil demands for each refinery, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery requiring 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) and OPAC Refinery needing 5,000 bpd. Other refineries, such as Waltersmith Refinery, Duport Midstream, Edo Refinery, and Aradel Refinery, have respective needs of 4,500 bpd, 2,000 bpd, 1,000 bpd, and 7,000 bpd. Furthermore, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries require 60,000 bpd, 75,000 bpd, and 66,000 bpd, respectively.
In December 2024, Nigeria’s average daily oil production increased by 7.38% year-on-year, reaching 1.667 million bpd, including condensate, up from 1.552 million bpd in December 2023. However, there was a month-on-month decline of 1.35% from November 2024's output of 1.690 million bpd.
Data indicated that Nigeria's peak daily oil production in December 2024 was 1.79 million bpd, while the lowest output recorded was 1.57 million bpd. Overall, Nigeria produced 51.69 million barrels in December 2024, reflecting a 1.9% increase compared to the 50.71 million barrels produced in November 2024.
The highest production for the month occurred at Forcados Terminal, which recorded 8.49 million barrels, followed by Bonny Terminal with 7.78 million barrels and Qua Iboe at 4.15 million barrels. Excluding condensate, Nigeria’s daily oil production was 1.484 million barrels, falling short of the OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd.