U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil has projected a tighter global oil market in the medium to long term, warning that underinvestment in unconventional oil and gas projects could severely constrain supply as demand continues to grow, particularly from emerging economies.

Speaking at an energy conference in London on Monday, ExxonMobil’s Chief Executive Officer, Darren Woods, said the current period of oil market oversupply is likely to be short-lived, adding that global demand growth and natural decline rates in existing fields will soon tip the balance toward tighter conditions.

“Oil market oversupply is likely to be a short-term issue, with demand from emerging economies set to make meeting global energy demand more challenging in the medium to longer term,” Woods said.

He emphasized that continued investment in unconventional resources — such as shale oil and tight gas — is crucial to maintaining global supply stability. Without it, Woods warned, the annual decline rate in production could reach as high as 15% per year, significantly eroding global output capacity.

ExxonMobil’s outlook underscores growing industry concerns that the energy transition and investor hesitancy toward fossil fuel projects could lead to underinvestment, creating future supply bottlenecks even as demand for cleaner energy rises.

Analysts say the company’s comments reflect a broader sentiment among major producers that maintaining balance in global energy markets will require both traditional oil and gas investments and accelerated development of low-carbon technologies to meet the world’s evolving energy needs.