Those targets now look increasingly distant.
Lofty Expectations and an Aggressive Growth Vision
The optimism around Showmax was strongly championed by former MultiChoice executive Yolisa Phahle. In May 2023, she forecast that the platform would deliver R18 billion in net revenue within five years, supported by an EBITDA margin above 25% once scale was achieved.
Her confidence rested on two central assumptions: first, that Africa represented the “final frontier” for SVOD growth, and second, that Showmax held an intrinsic advantage over global competitors thanks to its local content, pricing strategy and partnership with Comcast.
Phahle even suggested that the alignment of affordability, infrastructure improvements and customer preference would allow Showmax to triple its initially forecast subscriber base. MultiChoice echoed this enthusiasm, projecting that DStv and Showmax together could reach 50 million subscribers by 2028.
Relaunching for Scale — But Growth Never Arrived
In pursuit of these ambitions, MultiChoice invested heavily in a full relaunch of Showmax, rolling out updated branding, new product tiers and a rebuilt platform across 44 African markets in February 2024. Nearly R1.7 billion was committed to adapting Comcast’s Peacock technology stack for the continent.
The company argued that broadband affordability and adoption were approaching a turning point and that this was the ideal moment to “double down” on streaming. The expectation was clear: Showmax 2.0 would trigger a steep J-curve of subscriber and revenue growth, eventually bringing profitability by FY2027.
Instead, reality pulled in the opposite direction.
Mounting Losses and Slipping Revenues
Despite a headline 44% increase in paying subscribers — driven largely by lower-priced packages — revenue failed to rise accordingly. The 2025 financial year delivered not the acceleration MultiChoice had promised, but a decline in paying subscriber revenue.
More concerning was the financial impact. Trading losses at Showmax surged to R4.9 billion, nearly double the previous year’s R2.6 billion. For investors, this raised questions about the sustainability of the strategy, particularly given MultiChoice’s R12 billion multi-party term loan used in part to support the relaunch.
Management acknowledged that lenders were increasingly uneasy about the strain Showmax’s funding requirements were putting on loan covenants.
Strategy Under Pressure
MultiChoice had assured the market that it would balance investment with prudent cost management while steering Showmax toward break-even. Its latest results, however, indicate that the business is nowhere near the trajectory required to meet its earlier forecasts.
“Subscriber growth and revenues were well short of the 2025 targets,” management conceded — a stark admission that the company missed its Showmax ambitions by a wide margin.
A Turning Point Ahead
With billions invested, losses intensifying and targets slipping further out of reach, the once-bullish vision for Showmax is now under scrutiny. The outcome is difficult to escape: MultiChoice’s streaming strategy will need a significant rethink.
What once was pitched as the company’s next growth engine has become one of its biggest strategic challenges — and a cautionary tale on the risks of betting too heavily on explosive streaming growth in a complex African market.