Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol fell sharply in the first nine months of 2025, with fresh figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing a dramatic N6.07tn drop in the country’s petrol import bill compared with the same period in 2024. The data reflects a sustained shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply structure—one increasingly influenced by rising domestic refining capacity.
A Steep Year-on-Year Decline
Between January and September 2025, Nigeria imported N5.42tn worth of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), significantly lower than the N11.50tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The 52.82% contraction points to a marked recalibration in how the nation sources its fuel.
Quarter-by-quarter analysis shows the trend took hold early in the year:
- Q1 2025: PMS imports dropped to N1.76tn from N3.81tn in Q1 2024 — a 53.8% decline (N2.05tn difference).
- Q2 2025: Imports slid to N2.38tn from N4.36tn — a 45.6% decrease (N1.99tn).
- Q3 2025: The steepest drop occurred here, falling to N1.29tn from N3.32tn — a 61.2% contraction (N2.03tn).
Combined, the three quarters account for a N6.07tn reduction, underscoring how rapidly Nigeria’s dependence on foreign petrol is shifting.
Domestic Refining Begins to Reshape Nigeria’s Fuel Market
While the NBS stops short of assigning a direct cause, analysts broadly link the collapse in import spending to rising domestic output—particularly the expansion of refining activities at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day facility began producing diesel and aviation fuel in January 2025 and commenced petrol output in September. Its entry has strengthened competition in the downstream market, contributing to a noticeable cooling of petrol prices, though fluctuations still occur.
The refinery’s early months were not without challenges. Dangote temporarily halted naira-denominated sales in March after failing to secure adequate foreign exchange to pay for crude, which it purchases in dollars. The Federal Government has since intervened to resolve the naira-for-crude bottleneck, allowing operations to stabilise and easing Nigeria’s need for offshore supply.
Downstream Shake-Up on the Horizon
Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, has hinted at what he calls a major “shakedown” in the downstream sector—one he insists will go beyond fuel pricing into a full structural overhaul. Speaking after President Bola Tinubu’s visit to the $20bn refinery complex in Lekki, he said the facility was set to embark on a “massive trajectory” in the coming years.
According to Dangote, the refinery will eventually be listed on the stock exchange, beginning with the fertiliser business. He reiterated the company’s commitment to deepening Nigeria’s energy independence, emphasising that the era of fuel queues is over.
Ambitions for the World’s Largest Refinery
Plans for expansion are already underway. In October 2025, Dangote disclosed intentions to push capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd, which would make it the largest refinery in the world. Earlier projections aim for a near-term scale-up to 700,000 bpd by the end of the year.
Reports from S&P Global suggest the expansion drive could be backed by Middle Eastern financing, setting the stage for a refinery system capable of transforming Nigeria’s entire fuel balance. The facility has already reshaped regional trade patterns—Nigeria is now a net exporter of diesel and jet fuel and supplies significant volumes of petrol once sourced from Europe.
“That ambition to ensure Africa’s energy independence is a herculean task,” Dangote reportedly said. “We would have to build the refinery again—either here or somewhere else. But going elsewhere would demand enormous infrastructure, and we already have it here.”
A Turning Point for Nigeria’s Energy Landscape
The sustained fall in petrol imports, coupled with growing refining capacity, signals what may be the beginning of the most consequential shift in Nigeria’s downstream sector in decades. As domestic production expands and structural reforms take shape, the country may finally be moving toward fuel self-sufficiency—an outcome that could relieve pressure on foreign exchange earnings and reinforce broader economic stability.