Nigeria’s stock market capitalisation could more than double to over ₦200 trillion by 2026 if the Dangote Refinery is listed on the Nigerian Exchange, according to Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company. However, he cautioned that the naira may weaken to around ₦1,590 per dollar by the end of the same period.
Rewane made the projection at the 2026 Economic Outlook Summit organised by RCCG Christ Church in Lagos over the weekend, where he shared insights on Nigeria’s capital markets, foreign exchange dynamics and broader economic outlook.
He described the anticipated public listing of the Dangote Refinery as a transformational event for Nigeria’s capital market, given the size and valuation of the asset.
“We expect the Dangote Refinery to list. If it is listed at today’s valuations, we think it will increase stock market capitalisation from about ₦105 trillion to over ₦200 trillion,” Rewane said.
According to him, such a listing would significantly deepen liquidity in the market and elevate the Nigerian Exchange’s status among major emerging market bourses globally.
On the foreign exchange front, Rewane projected a gradual depreciation of the naira to about ₦1,590 per dollar by the end of 2026, even as he expects the US dollar to weaken against other global currencies.
“The US dollar is going to weaken because of various forces,” he said, pointing to anticipated policy signals from the US Federal Reserve, including interest rate decisions, as factors likely to shape global currency movements.
Despite the medium-term outlook, Rewane noted that the naira remained relatively stable throughout 2025. He, however, warned that emerging pressures are evident, as the spread between the official and parallel market exchange rates has widened to about ₦71.
“The exchange rate has been largely stable through 2025, but the widening gap between the official rates and the market suggests renewed pressure in the FX market,” he added.
His comments came as the naira closed the trading week largely unchanged across the foreign exchange market, supported by Nigeria’s external reserves crossing the $46 billion mark. Central Bank of Nigeria data showed that the currency appreciated slightly to ₦1,421.62 per dollar on Friday, a 45 kobo gain from the previous day.
Also speaking at the summit, the Minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment, John Enoh, said the Federal Government has laid a solid foundation for competitiveness and sustainable economic growth through ongoing reforms.
According to Enoh, the administration inherited deep structural challenges, including heavy import dependence, low investment levels relative to GDP and weak infrastructure to support industrial growth. He said current reforms are focused on addressing these issues by creating a more predictable, stable and fair policy environment.
“Our reforms are not just chasing perfection but building predictability, stability and fairness,” the minister said, adding that 2026 is expected to be a year when the benefits of reforms become more visible in terms of jobs, stronger industries and increased investment.
Meanwhile, Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, highlighted both opportunities and constraints within Nigeria’s business environment. He encouraged Nigerians to increasingly consider entrepreneurship and self-employment, noting that some salary structures no longer align with current economic realities.
Together, the speakers painted a picture of an economy at a turning point, with major opportunities tied to capital market expansion and reforms, alongside ongoing risks in the foreign exchange space.