Dangote Refinery Shifts to Lighter Crude as RFCC Downtime Keeps Output Below Full Potential
Africa’s largest single-train refinery, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, has quietly altered its crude intake strategy in response to a persistent technical bottleneck that continues to limit its production capacity. According to a recent report by global commodities intelligence firm Kpler, the refinery has increasingly processed lighter crude grades in a deliberate effort to mitigate disruptions caused by the prolonged unavailability of its 200,000-barrel-per-day Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC).
The RFCC, a key conversion unit crucial for gasoline and middle distillate output, has remained offline since April 2025, and its repeated outages have capped the refinery’s overall runs and slowed its ramp-up. In response, Dangote has shifted toward lighter crude oil with an API gravity of about 37–39 since the fourth quarter of 2025. This strategic move has helped preserve feedstock for CDU-linked secondary units such as the Continuous Catalytic Reformer (CCR), isomerisation, and hydrocracking units, allowing the refinery to sustain output despite the RFCC’s continued downtime.
Kpler’s report, titled “Dangote H1 2026 Outlook: RFCC challenges keep runs capped and ramp-up uneven,” suggests that the switch to lighter crude has been essential in stabilising operations and reducing the risk of major supply disruptions. The report notes that this adjustment has helped keep critical downstream units operational, thereby supporting gasoline and middle distillate production even as the RFCC remains offline.
To minimise the impact of RFCC unavailability, the refinery has shifted toward a lighter crude slate, helping preserve feed availability to CDU-linked secondary units and reducing the risk of major disruptions to gasoline and middle distillate output. Kpler expects refinery runs to hover around 300,000–320,000 barrels per day into February, assuming RFCC ramp-up begins in the third week of February.
Gasoline Output Maintained Through Alternative Conversion Units and Imports
Despite the RFCC constraint, Dangote has continued producing gasoline through alternative conversion units, supported by increased imports of gasoline blending components. Kpler estimates that gasoline imports into the refinery rose to about 45,000 barrels per day in January, helping to maintain supply levels amid limited internal conversion capacity.
The report further states that crude runs in January were estimated at between 280,000 and 300,000 barrels per day and are expected to remain around 300,000 to 320,000 barrels per day into February, reflecting the ongoing impact of RFCC downtime.
Kpler also highlighted the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the refinery’s operational outlook, noting that the RFCC restart has been pushed to February 10 and could slip further. The report emphasised that the RFCC remains the key bottleneck, keeping runs capped after repeated outages since April 2025.
Market sources cited by Kpler indicate that the RFCC work scope continues to face technical challenges, increasing the risk of further timeline extensions. Given the complexity and sensitivity of RFCC units, any additional delays could further extend the refinery’s path to stabilisation.
Short CDU Maintenance and Production Forecasts
A short one-week maintenance on the crude distillation unit is also expected in early February, adding another variable to the refinery’s near-term output profile. Looking ahead, Kpler projected that refinery runs could average about 350,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and around 400,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year, assuming a gradual RFCC ramp-up beginning in the third week of February.
Under this scenario, gasoline production could average about 120,000 barrels per day in the first quarter and rise to roughly 150,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2026.
However, Kpler warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, stressing that refinery stabilisation is still months away as RFCC reliability remains the key swing factor. The firm noted that extended ramp-up periods are common for mega-refineries, often taking between 24 and 36 months to reach steady operations, particularly where critical conversion units face reliability challenges.
A Strategic Shift Amid a Long-Term Growth Goal
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is expected to play a pivotal role in reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products and easing pressure on foreign exchange. While the refinery has demonstrated resilience by maintaining output through alternative units and imports, its full operational potential remains constrained by the RFCC’s ongoing technical challenges.
Analysts believe that the refinery’s experience aligns with global patterns seen in other large start-ups, where critical conversion units often delay normalisation and sustained ramp-up is unlikely in the near term.
As the RFCC restart date remains uncertain and the refinery continues to rely on lighter crude grades, Dangote’s path to full stabilisation appears to be a gradual process—one that may still take several more months before it can reliably operate at its intended capacity.