After delivering a remarkable 1,354% return in 2024, the company’s stock has continued to climb this year. It opened 2026 at N72.70, rising 76.8% year-to-date, and currently ranks sixth among the NGX’s top performers. The surge has lifted NCR’s market capitalization to roughly N13.9 billion.
What NCR Does
NCR Nigeria supplies and maintains technology solutions that facilitate transactions and customer interactions across sectors such as banking, retail, hospitality, healthcare, and travel. Its portfolio includes hardware and software for ATMs, POS terminals, self-service kiosks, and other customer-facing systems. Founded in 1949 and headquartered in Lagos, the company operates as a subsidiary of NCR Voyix Corporation.
Why the Rally Has Accelerated
Market analysts point to the company’s ownership structure as a key driver of the sharp price movement.
NCR Corporation (USA) owns 61.76% of the company’s shares, leaving a free float of only 31.74% out of 108 million outstanding shares. The limited number of tradable shares means that even modest buying interest can push the stock sharply higher.
This restricted supply suggests that the rally may be supply-driven, rather than driven by large institutional capital inflows.
Another factor is the stock’s recovery from a very low valuation base following years of weak performance and thin trading.
Fundamentals Still Lag Behind the Price
Despite the strong price action, the company’s long-term financial record paints a more cautious picture.
From 2020 to 2024, NCR recorded cumulative revenue of N16.0 billion, but revenue declined at a compound annual rate of 15.95%. Over the same period, the company posted a cumulative loss of N4.2 billion, with profits deteriorating at an average annual rate of 49.47%.
The primary issue has been cost of sales, which reached N12.95 billion between 2020 and 2024 and declined more slowly than revenue. By 2024, cost of sales nearly matched revenue, squeezing gross margins and sustaining operating losses.
A Possible Turning Point
There are signs of improvement in 2025. For the nine months ended 2025, NCR reported a profit of N238 million, supported by tighter cost control. This represents the company’s first meaningful break from a multi-year loss cycle.
However, analysts caution that it is too early to confirm a full turnaround, and the positive result may not yet reflect a sustained operational recovery.
Valuation: Attractive or Premature?
At the current share price of N128.55, NCR trades at approximately 10.9 times trailing earnings, a valuation that appears reasonable at first glance.
But investors should be wary: the multiple is based on a short earnings history after years of losses. Between 2020 and 2024, earnings per share fell sharply, ending at a loss of N20.11 per share in 2024.
The recent positive earnings represent early recovery rather than a proven track record. The current valuation therefore reflects market expectations of future stability, not past performance.
Outlook: Momentum Ahead of Fundamentals
NCR’s rally is real, but it appears to be driven more by market structure, momentum, and expectations than by a confirmed operational turnaround.
With a tight free float, price movements are amplified, while the recent profit helps justify optimism without eliminating underlying risks.
For the rally to be sustained, investors will watch for:
- Consistent revenue stabilization or growth
- Sustained improvement in cost of sales and margins
- Full-year confirmation of 2025 profitability
Until earnings, equity position, or cash-flow sustainability materially improve, NCR remains a momentum-driven stock rather than a fundamentals-based investment. Traders may find it attractive, but long-term investors should proceed with caution.