Preliminary estimates from energy analytics firm Vortexa show that Russian crude shipments into China could average about 2.07 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, up markedly from approximately 1.7 million bpd in January. Provisional data from Kpler put the figure at around 2.083 million bpd — a significant jump from 1.718 million bpd the prior month.
The surge comes as independent Chinese refiners, often referred to as “teapots,” have snapped up deeply discounted Russian barrels, especially grades like Urals, ESPO, Sokol and Varandey, as crude prices from Russia trade at discounts of $9–$11 a barrel below the global benchmark ICE Brent. These discounts are among the lowest in years, making Russian supplies economically attractive.
China overtook India in late 2025 as Moscow’s largest seaborne crude customer, a trend that has accelerated this year amid geopolitical and market pressures. Western sanctions related to the war in Ukraine — combined with diplomatic leverage linked to a U.S. trade deal — have contributed to Indian refiners cutting Russian crude imports to multi-year lows. Kpler’s data indicate India’s Russian imports may fall to around 1.159 million bpd in February, down sharply from earlier levels.
Market analysts also note that geopolitical uncertainty — particularly fears over potential U.S. military action involving Iran — has made Russian oil appear more reliable to Chinese buyers relative to Iranian crude, further boosting demand for Moscow’s exports.
The widening of Russian sales to China illustrates a broader realignment of global crude flows, with Beijing increasingly absorbing volumes that have eased from traditional buyers such as New Delhi, whose imports have contracted due to external pressure and shifting energy strategies.