Nigeria’s domestic fuel supply recorded a significant improvement in January 2026, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivering an average of 40.1 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) per day.
Data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that output increased by roughly 8 million litres per day from the 32 million litres recorded in December 2025, reflecting a steady ramp-up in local refining operations.
Rising Domestic Contribution
Nigeria’s domestic PMS supply benchmark stands at 75 million litres per day. With over 40 million litres now coming from the Dangote facility, the refinery is supplying more than half of average national consumption, which stood at 60.2 million litres per day in January.
The regulator reported that total PMS supply into the domestic market averaged 64.9 million litres per day during the month. Imports—handled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other marketers—accounted for an average of 24.8 million litres daily, continuing to complement domestic refining output.
NMDPRA noted that its consumption figures are calculated based on volumes trucked out into the domestic market, which it considers the most reliable measure of effective distribution.
Nearing Full Capacity
Located in the Lekki Free Zone, the Dangote refinery is designed as a 650,000 barrels-per-day single-train facility—the largest of its kind globally. The plant has been undergoing phased ramp-up since commissioning, with management targeting a gradual reduction in Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports.
The refinery previously projected it could supply up to 50 million litres of PMS daily between December 2025 and January 2026. It has since optimized its Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block to stabilise steady-state operations.
A 72-hour performance test run is currently underway with technology licensor UOP to validate operational efficiency and confirm compliance with international standards. Company officials describe the attainment of full nameplate capacity as a historic milestone, positioning the facility as the first refinery of its scale to achieve such output in a single train.
Broader Economic Impact
Industry stakeholders view the refinery’s progress as pivotal to strengthening Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. Reduced import dependence is expected to ease pressure on foreign exchange demand and improve supply stability.
Prominent investor Femi Otedola recently projected that the naira could strengthen to below N1,000 per dollar before year-end, attributing potential currency gains partly to declining fuel imports and the refinery’s operational momentum.
Earlier data from NMDPRA indicated that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption rose to 63.7 million litres in December 2025, underscoring the scale of domestic demand the refinery is now helping to meet.
With output climbing steadily, Nigeria appears to be moving closer to its domestic supply targets—marking a turning point in the country’s long-standing reliance on imported refined petroleum products.