Prediction markets allow users to bet on future outcomes by buying and selling event contracts—usually framed as yes-or-no questions. Prices for these contracts range from $0 to $1, with higher prices reflecting greater market confidence that an event will occur.
The stakes were unusually high this year. Kalshi’s “Who will perform at the Big Game?” market attracted more than $47.3 million in wagers, while a Polymarket contract drew over $10 million in volume.
During the halftime show, Cardi B appeared alongside performers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a “starry front porch” set. While she danced amid performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga, it was unclear whether she had actively sung—raising questions about whether her presence constituted a qualifying “performance.”
Kalshi responded by settling its market at the last price before trading was halted, then issuing refunds to users. The platform cited the “ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance…constituted a qualifying ‘performance.’”
Polymarket took a different route, resolving its contract in favor of a “Yes” outcome, affirming that Cardi B had performed. That decision has since been contested by users, and a final resolution is expected later this week.
The dispute escalated when a trader who had bet “Yes” on Kalshi filed a complaint with the CFTC, alleging that the platform violated the Commodity Exchange Act in its settlement process and seeking $3,700 in damages. The complaint was first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and Front Office Sports.
The high-profile controversy follows a record-setting Super Bowl weekend for Kalshi. The platform reported more than $1 billion in total trading volume on the day of the game—an increase of more than 2,700% from last year. Season-long trading on Super Bowl winner futures reached $828.6 million, up over 2,000% from 2025.
The surge in activity also caused temporary deposit-processing issues. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara acknowledged the disruption on X, noting that the “traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts.” She added that affected users were reimbursed for processing fees and received credits for delayed deposits.
Other platforms are also reporting strong growth. Robinhood Markets highlighted the robust performance of its prediction markets in recent earnings, with CEO Vlad Tenev describing the sector as entering a “prediction market super cycle” that could eventually drive trillions in annual volume, citing upcoming events like the Olympics and the World Cup.