Strong demand for mobile data and expanding digital adoption are expected to continue powering the growth of MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, with analysts projecting additional upside for the telecom giant’s shares in the near term.
Analysts at CardinalStone have reaffirmed a Buy rating on MTN Nigeria, projecting an 18.1% potential upside in the company’s share price based on prevailing market conditions and expected operational performance.
In a recent report titled “MTNN: Structural Data Demand Driven Growth,” the analysts highlighted the sustained increase in data consumption across the telecommunications sector as a key driver of revenue growth, even in the face of recent price adjustments for telecom services.
Rising Data Consumption Across the Industry
Industry data points to a significant surge in internet usage. According to statistics from the Nigerian Communications Commission, total data consumption in Nigeria climbed to 1.39 million terabytes in 2025, up from 973,455.35 terabytes recorded in 2024.
The upward trend underscores the expanding role of digital services in Nigeria’s economy, with consumers increasingly relying on mobile connectivity for daily activities.
Against this backdrop, CardinalStone analysts project that MTN Nigeria’s share price could rise from about N790 to N933.33 on the Nigerian Exchange. The firm also estimates that shareholders could receive a dividend of N60.78 per share for the 2026 financial year, supported by stronger earnings and sustained revenue growth.
Data Business Emerges as Key Growth Engine
MTN Nigeria’s data segment remained the company’s strongest growth driver in 2025. Analysts noted that average data usage per subscriber increased by 20%, while the number of data subscribers rose 11.6% to 53.2 million, despite higher data tariffs.
This expansion was attributed largely to continued network investment and Nigeria’s increasing adoption of digital platforms, including fintech applications, e-commerce services, and remote-work tools.
Looking ahead to 2026, the analysts expect the momentum to continue as the telecom operator expands its 4G network coverage to approximately 84.6% of Nigeria’s population. Average data usage per subscriber is projected to grow by 25% to about 16.8GB, while data revenue could increase by 47.2% year-on-year.
The broader digital ecosystem in Nigeria also continues to expand. Smartphone penetration has risen significantly—from 45.9% in 2020 to 66.1% in 2025—while the number of mobile internet users increased by roughly 8.7 million between 2024 and 2025, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission.
Long-Term Growth Outlook
Industry forecasts suggest even stronger growth potential. The GSMA estimates that Nigeria could add about 32 million new mobile internet subscribers by 2030, reinforcing expectations for sustained demand across telecom networks.
While the data segment remains the primary growth engine, MTN Nigeria’s voice business is expected to maintain steady performance, with revenue projected to grow by around 10% to N1.8 trillion in 2026.
In addition, strategic developments at the parent-company level could influence future cost structures. In February 2026, MTN Group announced a $6.2 billion deal to fully acquire IHS Towers, a major telecom infrastructure provider with more than 15,000 tower sites in Nigeria.
According to CardinalStone, full ownership of the tower operator could help MTN gain greater control over infrastructure and potentially reduce long-term tower lease costs.
Return to Profitability
MTN Nigeria’s improving financial performance has also reinforced investor confidence. The company reported a pre-tax profit of N1.7 trillion for 2025, a sharp turnaround from the N550.3 billion loss recorded in 2024, which had been largely driven by foreign-exchange pressures.
Service revenue rose 55.1% to N5.17 trillion, with data services accounting for a substantial share of the growth. Data revenue surged 74.5% to N2.78 trillion, supported by higher data traffic and an expanding user base of 53.2 million active subscribers.
Other segments also posted strong gains.
- Voice revenue increased 42.1% to N1.85 trillion.
- Fintech revenue jumped 79.7% to N191.3 billion, aided by growth in active wallets to 3.7 million and higher interest income.
Foreign-exchange movements also improved the company’s earnings profile. MTN Nigeria recorded a foreign-exchange gain of N90.3 billion, compared with a loss of N925.4 billion in 2024, after settling letters of credit and reducing its exposure to dollar-denominated obligations.
Dividends and Market Performance
Following the strong results, the board of MTN Nigeria proposed a final dividend of N15 per share, bringing the total dividend for 2025 to N20 per share for shareholders.
Investor sentiment toward the telecom operator has remained positive. Shares of MTN Nigeria surged 155% in 2025 and have continued their upward trajectory into 2026, rising more than 54% as of the market close on March 9, 2026.
The company’s Chief Executive Officer, Karl Toriola, previously described 2025 as a turning point for the business, citing stronger operational performance and improved financial stability.
Looking ahead, CardinalStone projects earnings per share of N80.84, driven by 30.4% revenue growth, improved margins, and reduced finance costs. The forecast supports the expected dividend of N60.78 per share, translating to a dividend yield of about 7.7% at the current market price.
With demand for mobile data continuing to accelerate and digital services expanding across Nigeria, analysts believe MTN Nigeria remains well positioned to sustain its growth momentum in the coming years.