The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced Sunday that more than 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves will soon be released to the market, marking a historic draw aimed at mitigating the surge in prices triggered by the conflict. Stocks from Asia and Oceania are being made available immediately, while reserves from Europe and the Americas are expected by the end of March, the agency said.
Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures have soared over 40% this month, reaching their highest levels since 2022. The spike comes after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets prompted Tehran to halt all shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about a fifth of global oil trade. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump has called on allied nations to deploy warships to secure the waterway and warned of additional strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. Tehran has signaled further retaliatory measures, escalating the standoff.
Shortly after the Kharg attacks, Iranian drones targeted a major oil terminal in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. "This marks an escalation in the conflict," said Natasha Kaneva, an analyst at JP Morgan. Other critical and highly vulnerable energy facilities in the region include Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura export terminal and the Abqaiq oil processing complex, according to JPM analysts.
Industry sources in Fujairah confirmed to Reuters on Sunday that oil loading operations have resumed. Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, serves as the export outlet for approximately 1 million barrels per day of the UAE’s flagship Murban crude—around 1% of global demand.
The IEA estimates that global oil supply could decline by as much as 8 million barrels per day in March due to shipping disruptions, with Middle Eastern producers cutting output by at least 10 million barrels per day. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright expressed cautious optimism, saying he expects the conflict to conclude within “the next few weeks,” after which oil supplies and energy costs would normalize.
Despite these projections, diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Sources familiar with discussions report that U.S. allies in the region have tried to initiate negotiations, but the Trump administration has resisted engagement, while Iran has rejected any ceasefire until strikes on its territory cease, reducing hopes for a rapid resolution.