The Dutch firm—Europe’s most valuable listed company—has seen its share price surge more than 40% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor confidence that AI-related capital spending will continue to drive orders for its highly specialised semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
AI boom fuels demand for advanced chip tools
At the centre of ASML’s growth story is its near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, the most advanced systems used in semiconductor manufacturing. These machines are essential for producing cutting-edge chips powering AI applications, including processors designed by companies such as Nvidia and manufactured by foundries like TSMC.
ASML’s equipment forms a critical bottleneck in global chip production, as EUV systems are complex, expensive, and can take more than a year to build and deliver. This has left the company operating at near capacity as chipmakers race to expand production of AI-focused semiconductors.
Strong earnings expectations ahead of results
Analysts expect a solid first quarter, with forecasts pointing to revenue between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, compared with €7.7 billion a year earlier. Market consensus suggests full-year revenue could reach around €37.6 billion, near the upper end of ASML’s own guidance range.
The company itself has projected 2024 full-year revenue of €34 billion to €39 billion, while signalling continued growth driven by AI-related demand and expansion in memory chip production.
Some analysts believe ASML may revise its 2026 outlook upward, particularly if demand from major customers accelerates further. Recent large-scale equipment orders from memory chip manufacturers have reinforced expectations of sustained investment across the semiconductor sector.
Supply constraints and production pressure
Despite strong demand, ASML faces structural constraints in scaling output. Its EUV systems are highly complex to manufacture, limiting how quickly supply can be increased. Analysts also point to potential bottlenecks in deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems, where the company faces competition from Japan’s Nikon and China’s SMEE.
These supply limitations are becoming a key focus for investors, as they determine how effectively ASML can convert surging demand into revenue growth over the coming years.
Geopolitics adds uncertainty
Geopolitical tensions remain a significant overhang, particularly regarding export restrictions to China. The country accounted for roughly one-third of ASML’s sales in 2025, though this share is expected to decline to about 20% under existing controls.
Further restrictions proposed in the United States could reduce China-related sales even more sharply, depending on how broadly they are enforced. This adds uncertainty to ASML’s longer-term growth trajectory, even as global AI-driven demand continues to strengthen.
AI infrastructure remains the dominant growth driver
Despite these risks, the overarching narrative for ASML remains closely tied to the buildout of AI infrastructure. Massive investments in data centres, accelerated chip design cycles, and rising demand for high-performance computing continue to underpin the semiconductor equipment cycle.
As a result, investors are closely watching whether ASML can not only meet strong near-term expectations but also raise its long-term guidance in line with the accelerating pace of global AI adoption.