Nigeria’s national budgeting landscape is at a pivotal juncture, with stakeholders across academia, government, and the private sector calling for a strategic realignment that embeds Artificial Intelligence (AI) and human capital development as central pillars of fiscal planning. This message was at the heart of the 7th National Budget Roundtable (NBR) and Panel Discussion, hosted by the Centre for Economic Policy and Development Research (CEPDeR) at Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State.
The event, held on Thursday, April 2, 2026, under the theme “National Budgeting, Artificial Intelligence and Human Capital Development”, provided a platform for experts to deliberate on how technology and fiscal policy can intersect to drive sustainable, inclusive growth in Nigeria.
CEPDeR: Linking Research to Policy and Practice
In her opening remarks, Chairperson of CEPDeR, Dr. Busayo Aderounmu, traced the centre’s establishment in 2018 by Covenant University’s Department of Economics and Development Studies, noting its mission: “Linking Research to Policy and Practice.” Dr. Aderounmu emphasized that CEPDeR is driven by the passion to create an interface among academia, policymakers, and industry practitioners.
“Our collective objective remains to strengthen Nigeria’s national budgeting framework as a strategic instrument for inclusive growth, structural transformation, and sustainable development,” she said. She highlighted that CEPDeR annually inaugurates new fellows, ranging from graduate research associates to principal research fellows. In 2026, about twenty new fellows joined the centre’s think-tank, further bolstering its expertise.
Technology and Fiscal Policy in a Transforming World
Dr. Aderounmu pointed out that the 2026 NBR provides an opportunity for Nigeria to rethink how fiscal policy and technology can combine to develop a productive, skilled, and future-ready population. “We are living in a defining era of global transformation, driven by rapid advances in AI, automation, digital systems, and data governance,” she said. “These technologies are reshaping productivity systems, labor markets, public service delivery, education models, financial systems, and national competitiveness.”
For developing economies like Nigeria, she warned, these shifts present both immense opportunities and significant risks. AI will not replace people, she added, but those who fail to invest in human capital risk marginalization. She recommended that budgeting at national and sub-national levels deliberately prioritize reforms that align with digital and analytical competencies, technical and vocational capacity for emerging industries, research and innovation ecosystems, digital infrastructure and data governance systems, and social protection frameworks for labor market transitions.
“Human capital development, which entails both education and health, is a key determinant of economic growth and development. It should no longer be treated as a residual expenditure but positioned as a core macroeconomic investment,” Dr. Aderounmu emphasized.
The forum, she said, aims to generate practical, evidence-based recommendations that translate into actionable policy reforms. Insights from the discussions will inform strategies for optimizing Nigeria’s budgetary framework.
National Budgeting: Beyond Financial Exercises
Vice-Chancellor of Covenant University, Prof. Timothy Anake, stressed that national budgeting is far more than an annual financial exercise; it reflects a nation’s priorities and developmental intent. “In today’s rapidly changing world, budgeting systems must evolve beyond traditional frameworks into more brilliant, data-driven, transparent, and technology-enabled instruments of governance,” he said.
Prof. Anake highlighted AI’s potential to enhance fiscal forecasting, improve expenditure efficiency, reduce leakages, and strengthen accountability. He cautioned, however, that AI adoption must be guided by responsible governance frameworks ensuring ethical deployment, fairness, data protection, and national security.
He further linked the discussion to Nigeria’s broader development aspirations under the National Development Plan (2021–2025), the Renewed Hope Agenda, and the National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy. The dialogue also resonates with global and continental commitments, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union’s Agenda 2063, all emphasizing inclusive prosperity driven by science, technology, and empowered citizens. “We are not merely discussing budgets and technologies; we are shaping destinies. When a nation invests rightly in knowledge, innovation, and human capacity, it secures a future of greatness for generations yet unborn,” Prof. Anake concluded.
AI, Human Capital, and Budgeting: Insights from the Keynote
Delivering the keynote address, Prof. Uche Joe Uwaleke, Director of the Institute of Capital Market Studies, defined national budgeting as the systematic allocation, monitoring, and evaluation of public resources to achieve socio-economic objectives. He noted that Nigeria operates within a federal structure marked by revenue volatility, recurrent-heavy spending, and persistent deficits.
Prof. Uwaleke described AI as systems that simulate human intelligence—through machine learning, predictive analytics, natural language processing, and automation—to analyze large datasets, forecast outcomes, and optimize decisions. He also defined human capital development as investments in education, health, skills, and wellbeing that enhance productivity and quality of life.
He pointed to Nigeria’s low Human Capital Index, historically around 0.36, constrained by poor access, brain drain, and skills mismatches. Explaining the AI–human capital nexus, he said: “AI can make budgeting more predictive and equitable, while targeted budgetary investments in AI-driven human capital development programs can unlock demographic dividends.”
Challenges in Nigeria’s Budgeting System
Prof. Uwaleke identified several persistent challenges:
- Simultaneous Budgets: Nigeria often implements multiple budgets at once; e.g., parts of the 2023 and 2024 budgets were executed alongside 2025, stretching limited resources.
- Overdependence on Oil Revenue: Oil contributes only 5–6% of GDP but over 80% of foreign exchange earnings, making the economy vulnerable to price fluctuations.
- Low Capital Expenditure Efficiency: Recurrent expenditures such as salaries and debt servicing consume over 60% of revenue, leaving minimal funds for infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
- Rising Public Debt: Nigeria’s debt has approached 160 trillion naira.
- Data Gaps: Lack of reliable statistics impedes planning, as basic metrics like population or school enrollment are often estimates.
- Corruption and Inefficiency: Budget leakages occur at all stages, and monitoring mechanisms are weak.
- Underinvestment in Human Capital: Allocations to education and healthcare remain low and are often incompletely implemented.
Harnessing AI for Budgeting and Human Capital
Despite these challenges, Prof. Uwaleke argued that AI offers practical solutions. Already applied in research and education, AI can improve productivity and outcomes. In budgeting, AI can analyze datasets to predict oil prices, revenue trends, and economic trajectories with greater accuracy, though it cannot foresee unpredictable events like pandemics or geopolitical conflicts.
He highlighted the Nigerian National AI Strategy (NAIS) 2025, which targets human capital development for young people aged 16–35, with 50% women and inclusive of persons with disabilities. The strategy seeks to reduce unemployment by five percentage points and includes programs like 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) and AI centers of excellence to support curriculum reforms.
Challenges remain, including infrastructure gaps, electricity shortages, ethical and regulatory risks, privacy concerns, and potential job displacement. Implementation is also hindered by poor coordination across ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs).
Prof. Uwaleke’s policy recommendations included:
- Adoption of AI-driven budgeting systems
- Establishing AI units within MDAs
- Introducing AI and data science into educational curricula
- Strengthening public-private partnerships and collaboration with universities and tech firms
- Providing tax incentives and matching grants to companies investing in AI research labs in universities
Panel Discussions: Human Capital and AI in Practice
The panel, featuring Oreitan Adigun (Director, Economics & Strategy, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria), Prof. Olufunke Oladipupo (AI and Data Management), and Ms. Funmilayo Ayeni (Country Director, Innovations for Poverty Action Nigeria), explored human capital development in practice. They discussed the banking sector’s challenges amid the “Japa” wave—Nigeria’s ongoing brain drain—and strategies to mitigate talent loss.
Ms. Ayeni described AI as a “game-changer,” particularly in education, where resource gaps affect both teachers and learners. She highlighted the potential to leverage AI to retain knowledge even as skilled professionals emigrate.
Prof. Oladipupo emphasized that national budgets must be data-driven: “You need to know where there is need before assigning values to budgets. AI is for everyone. If everyone is not involved, it may not work.” She stressed that effective human capital investment requires capacity building and infrastructure aligned with budget priorities.
Conclusion: Shaping Nigeria’s Economic Future
The 2026 NBR reaffirmed a critical message: Nigeria’s economic competitiveness and long-term growth depend on integrating AI into fiscal policy while prioritizing human capital development. By creating data-driven, technology-enabled budgeting systems and investing in education, health, and workforce skills, the nation can foster inclusive prosperity and resilience.
Participants concluded that insights from the discussions would be translated into actionable policy recommendations, ensuring that these dialogues lead to tangible reforms that strengthen Nigeria’s national budgeting framework for generations to come.