The move comes against the backdrop of the ongoing US-Iran crisis, which has disrupted supply chains and driven up crude oil prices, contributing to shortages and rising costs of refined products worldwide.
Speaking at a Lagos conference organised by the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, the refinery’s Managing Director, David Bird, confirmed that the facility is now producing enough to meet Nigeria’s domestic demand, with surplus volumes being exported across Africa and beyond.
According to Bird, the refinery has already shipped refined products — including jet fuel, diesel and petrol — to more than 11 African countries since the crisis escalated in late February. He emphasized that the export strategy prioritises African markets, in line with the vision of Aliko Dangote, founder of the Dangote Group.
Rising Output, Expanding Reach
The refinery is currently operating at full capacity following scheduled maintenance earlier in the year, enabling it to ramp up exports. Bird noted that the expansion into international markets is largely driven by excess production capacity.
He added that while Nigeria remains well-supplied, many countries — both developed and developing — are facing acute fuel shortages. Nations heavily dependent on imports, including Australia and several Asian economies, are particularly affected.
High Prices Driven by Crude Oil Surge
Global oil prices have surged amid the crisis, with crude reportedly reaching $112 per barrel. This has significantly increased the cost of aviation fuel, placing pressure on airlines and fuel-dependent industries worldwide.
Despite these challenges, Bird maintained that Nigeria is in a relatively stable position due to increased domestic refining capacity. He highlighted that the availability of fuel and related products such as fertiliser reflects the impact of large-scale local investments.
Export Strategy and Market Dynamics
The refinery sells its products on a free-on-board basis to a wide range of international buyers, while making deliberate efforts to channel supplies to African countries where possible.
Industry data cited by Reuters indicates that the refinery is capitalising on strong global demand for jet fuel, particularly from Europe. Shipments to European markets have surged in recent months, with buyers willing to pay premium prices ahead of peak summer travel demand.
Estimates suggest that the plant produces about 24 million litres of jet fuel daily, far exceeding Nigeria’s domestic aviation needs, which are put at roughly 2.1 million litres per day.
Competitive Edge and Profit Margins
Analysts say the refinery’s scale, efficiency and access to competitively priced crude — sourced from the United States, Brazil and African producers — have given it a significant advantage in global markets.
While European refiners are reportedly earning margins of about $15 per barrel, the Dangote facility is believed to be generating more than double that figure, underscoring its strong position in the international refining landscape.
As Africa’s largest refinery, the project was designed to transform Nigeria into a net exporter of refined petroleum products, reduce dependence on imports and cushion the economy from external shocks. Its expanding export footprint now suggests that it is beginning to deliver on that ambition, even as global energy markets remain volatile.