The International Trade Centre (ITC) has flagged fertiliser shortages as a more immediate and pressing risk than surging energy costs, warning that ongoing geopolitical tensions could have far-reaching consequences for food systems, particularly in import-dependent regions.
Speaking on the development, Pamela Coke-Hamilton stressed that fertiliser availability remains central to agricultural productivity and economic stability. She noted that any sustained disruption in supply could directly undermine food production, especially in countries already vulnerable to supply shocks.
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Tighten Supply
At the heart of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route responsible for transporting roughly one-third of the world’s urea fertiliser. Ongoing tensions involving Iran and the United States have led to blockades and shipping disruptions, significantly constraining fertiliser flows during a key agricultural period.
The United Nations has indicated that diplomatic efforts are ongoing to restore safe passage through the waterway, but uncertainty remains over how quickly normal supply chains can resume.
Import-Dependent Nations Face Higher Risk
The ITC highlighted that several countries across Africa and Asia are particularly exposed due to their reliance on fertiliser imports from Gulf producers. Among the most vulnerable are Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand, and Sri Lanka.
In these markets, the challenge is not just supply delays but the risk of permanently reduced yields. With narrow planting windows and heavy reliance on seasonal rainfall, farmers may be forced to use less fertiliser, directly impacting crop output.
Rising Risk of Food Insecurity
Analysts warn that declining fertiliser use could trigger a chain reaction—lower harvests, higher food prices, and increased vulnerability to shortages. Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are expected to be particularly affected, given existing pressures from inflation, climate variability, and food insecurity.
Timing is a critical factor. Disruptions occurring during key planting cycles could have lasting effects on upcoming harvests, making recovery more difficult even if supply conditions improve later.
Limited Alternatives Offer Little Immediate Relief
While some countries may attempt to source fertiliser from alternative suppliers, short-term relief appears limited. The ITC pointed to potential export capacity in Egypt and Algeria, but noted that logistical bottlenecks and production constraints could delay any meaningful stabilisation of supply.
Energy Gains Provide Only Temporary Cushion
The report also examined the impact of rising energy prices, noting that some developing economies—including Nigeria, Brazil, and Angola—could benefit from higher crude oil prices. However, these gains are likely to be short-lived, as many remain dependent on imported refined petroleum products.
Similarly, natural gas exporters such as Algeria and Malaysia may see some upside, though limited capacity expansion in the near term restricts broader benefits.
A Dual Economic Shock
Ultimately, the ITC warns that developing economies are confronting a dual challenge: rising energy costs alongside a more immediate and potentially destabilising fertiliser shortage.
While energy markets may gradually stabilise, the disruption to fertiliser supply poses a deeper structural threat—one that could undermine agricultural production, intensify food insecurity, and strain already fragile economies in the months ahead.