The Masters has a long history of dramatic swings after halfway leads, with past champions and contenders offering a reminder that even dominant positions at Augusta are never fully secure.
One of the most striking modern examples came in 2022 when world number one Scottie Scheffler held a five-shot lead after 36 holes. Despite briefly wobbling with a costly four-putt on the final hole of the third round, Scheffler steadied himself to secure a three-shot victory, holding off a charging McIlroy in the closing stretch.
In 2015, Jordan Spieth delivered one of the most dominant Masters performances in history, building early momentum with record-breaking opening rounds before converting a five-shot halfway lead into a comfortable four-shot victory over Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose, rarely allowing challengers to close the gap.
Further back, Raymond Floyd’s 1976 triumph remains a benchmark for early control of the tournament. Floyd opened with blistering rounds to establish a five-shot lead over Jack Nicklaus and ultimately extended that advantage before closing out a dominant win, setting scoring records that stood for decades.
The tournament has also produced examples of leads slipping under pressure. In 1975, Jack Nicklaus carried a five-shot advantage through 36 holes but was overtaken during a dramatic weekend battle, eventually producing a famous closing charge to reclaim victory in one of Augusta’s most celebrated finishes.
Older Masters history offers similar contrasts. In 1946, Herman Keiser turned a five-shot lead into a narrow win despite late pressure from Ben Hogan, while in 1936 Harry “Lighthorse” Cooper saw his advantage slip on the final day, losing by a single stroke after a late rally from Horton Smith.
The historical record underscores a consistent theme at Augusta National: large early leads can be both a platform for dominance and a psychological test, with final outcomes often shaped by how leaders respond to the pressure of the closing rounds.