The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has described Nigeria’s first quarter 2026 economic growth performance as a positive indication of improving macroeconomic stability and growing business confidence, even as it warned that sustainable development cannot depend largely on commerce and services alone.
In its reaction to the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the private sector advocacy group said the 3.89 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter reflects the resilience of critical non-oil sectors despite lingering structural challenges in the economy.
According to the NBS, the non-oil sector remained the dominant driver of economic activities, contributing 96.08 per cent to the country’s GDP growth during the quarter under review.
The figure represents a marginal improvement over the 96.03 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, although it was slightly below the 97.13 per cent contribution achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Data from the statistics bureau also showed that the services sector continued to account for the largest share of economic output, contributing 57.75 per cent to GDP. This was slightly higher than the 57.50 per cent contribution recorded in the same period last year.
Trade Sector Emerges as Major Economic Driver
Reacting to the figures in a policy brief signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the CPPE identified the trade sector as one of the biggest highlights of the report.
According to the organisation, the sector emerged as the single largest contributor to GDP with a contribution of 17.89 per cent, a development it linked to improving macroeconomic conditions.
“This reflects the positive effects of improved exchange rate stability, better FX liquidity conditions, easing inflationary pressures and recovering business confidence on commercial activities and trade flows,” the CPPE stated.
Economic analysts say the stronger performance of trade and services suggests that recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilising the foreign exchange market may be gradually improving commercial activities across the country.
Manufacturing Still Under Pressure
Despite the positive GDP growth figures, the CPPE warned that Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation could remain elusive without stronger investment in productive sectors, especially manufacturing and industrialisation.
The organisation noted that manufacturing growth of 3.29 per cent remains weak for an economy seeking broad-based development and large-scale employment generation.
According to the CPPE, structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on the industrial sector.
“High energy costs, elevated interest rates, weak infrastructure, logistics bottlenecks and policy uncertainties continue to undermine industrial productivity and competitiveness,” the group said.
It further stressed that the country cannot achieve durable structural transformation without a stronger manufacturing base.
“Industrialisation remains the most sustainable pathway to large-scale job creation, export competitiveness and inclusive growth,” the statement added.
Electricity Sector Records Sharp Decline
The CPPE also expressed concern over the performance of the electricity and gas sector, which recorded a sharp contraction of 15.30 per cent during the quarter.
The organisation described the development as one of the most troubling aspects of the GDP report, noting that it represents the weakest-performing sector and the steepest decline recorded in recent years.
Analysts warn that continued weaknesses in the power sector could undermine gains in manufacturing, trade and broader industrial productivity, especially as businesses continue to grapple with high operating costs and dependence on alternative energy sources.
The latest GDP figures come amid ongoing efforts by the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria to stabilise the economy, tame inflation and attract investment into productive sectors.