The latest entry in the Star Wars universe pulled in approximately $12 million from Thursday night previews in North America after screenings began at 2 p.m., positioning the film for a projected four-day opening between $80 million and $100 million.
The early performance places the film slightly behind Solo: A Star Wars Story, which earned $14.1 million in previews before debuting to a disappointing $103 million four-day Memorial Day opening in 2018 — a result widely viewed at the time as underwhelming for one of Hollywood’s biggest franchises.
Still, industry analysts believe Disney is counting on stronger family turnout over the holiday weekend to boost momentum for the new film.
Disney Leans Into Family Appeal and Franchise Nostalgia
Directed by Jon Favreau, The Mandalorian and Grogu expands the storylines introduced in the Disney+ television series The Mandalorian and stars Pedro Pascal alongside the franchise’s breakout character, Grogu — popularly known to fans as “Baby Yoda.”
The movie is playing across 4,300 theaters, including premium formats such as IMAX, ScreenX, 4DX, 3D, and other large-format screens.
Disney’s marketing campaign has heavily targeted families, placing Grogu at the centre of promotional efforts while simultaneously appealing to longtime Star Wars fans through callbacks to classic franchise imagery, including snowy battle sequences reminiscent of Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back.
One widely discussed Super Bowl advertisement featured Pascal and Grogu in a playful holiday-themed setting, underscoring Disney’s strategy of broadening the film’s appeal beyond core franchise audiences.
The studio is also hoping the emotional attachment audiences developed through the streaming series will translate into stronger theatrical turnout over the weekend.
Audience Reactions Stronger Than Critics
Early audience response appears encouraging.
The film currently holds an 88% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, significantly higher than the 63% audience score earned by Solo: A Star Wars Story.
However, critics have been somewhat more divided. Critics’ scores for The Mandalorian and Grogu currently sit around 61%, below Solo’s 69% critical rating.
Industry observers caution that opening-night fan reactions often skew more positive than broader general audience reception later in a film’s theatrical run.
Still, Disney appears optimistic that the combination of franchise nostalgia, family-friendly marketing, and the popularity of Grogu will help the movie sustain momentum through the Memorial Day corridor.
Disney Tries to Reignite Star Wars Theatrical Dominance
The stakes are high for Disney and Lucasfilm.
Since acquiring Lucasfilm in 2012, Disney has experienced both massive successes and notable disappointments with the Star Wars franchise.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens became a historic box office phenomenon upon release, opening to nearly $248 million domestically and at one point holding the record for the biggest domestic opening weekend ever before being surpassed by Marvel films such as Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame.
Disney also scored a major success with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $155 million in North America.
But subsequent theatrical releases, particularly Solo: A Star Wars Story, struggled to match expectations, prompting Disney to shift much of the franchise’s focus toward streaming television projects in recent years.
The Mandalorian and Grogu now represents an important test of whether Disney can successfully transition one of its most successful streaming-era Star Wars properties back to cinemas.
Michael Continues Strong Run as ‘Obsession’ Surprises
While Star Wars dominates attention heading into the holiday weekend, Michael continues to deliver strong box office results for Lionsgate Studios.
The Michael Jackson biopic earned $37.5 million during its fourth week in theaters, pushing its domestic total to approximately $294.1 million.
Meanwhile, Focus Features’ horror romance Obsession has emerged as one of the week’s surprise performers.
Directed by Curry Barker, the film topped weekday box office charts for several consecutive days, outperforming Michael on Monday through Wednesday and earning $30.3 million in its opening week.
The film stars Melissa Leo and blends horror and romance elements around a supernatural stalker narrative. Despite relatively weak critical and audience scores, the movie appears to be benefiting from strong curiosity and genre appeal heading into the holiday weekend.
Elsewhere, The Devil Wears Prada 2, Mortal Kombat II, and The Sheep Detectives rounded out the week’s top five releases.
Last year, Disney helped drive the Memorial Day box office to a record-breaking $326.7 million led by the live-action adaptation of Lilo & Stitch, which opened to a massive $182.6 million four-day debut.
Now, all eyes are on whether Grogu and the Star Wars universe can generate another major holiday box office event.